DUSHANBE, May 20, 2015, Asia-Plus – Further deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan may lead to increase in strength of the Russian military base deployed in Tajikistan, Omar Nessar, Director of the Center for Contemporary Afghan Studies, told Asia-Plus in an interview.
According to him, the situation in Afghanistan has begun deteriorating practically right after the beginning of withdrawal of the international coalition troops from the country.
“Information coming from the northern provinces of Afghanistan is very uncertain that complicates the assessment and analysis of the real situation,” Mr. Nessar said.
At the same time, he does not think that armed groups that have concentrated on the other bank of the Panj River have enough strength and means to break the border.
The Russian military base deployed in Tajikistan is Russia”s largest non-naval military facility outside the country. It was officially opened in Tajikistan in 2004 under a previous agreement, which was signed in 1993, and hosts Russia’s largest military contingent deployed abroad.
A total of some 7,000 Russian troops are stationed at three military facilities collectively known as the 201st military base – in Dushanbe, Qurghon Teppa, some 100 kilometers from Dushanbe, and Kulob, about 200 kilometers southwest of Dushanbe.
We will recall that Deputy Russian Defense Minister, Anatoly Antonov, on April 9 wrote in the Russian Defense Ministry Twitter microblog, “IS (Islamic State) militants have already appeared near Tajikistan’s border. Providing assistance to Tajikistan, we defend Russia, the CSTO member nations, our allies.”
He considers that Russian military base deployed in Tajikistan is able to protect Tajikistan and the CSTO member nations against the terrorist threat. “The Russian military base in Tajikistan is our outpost in the region that is ready to protect Tajikistan and the CSTO member nations against the possible terrorist threat” Antonov writes.
Contingents from the Collective Treaty Organization (CSTO) Collective Operational Reaction Force (CORF) participated in snap exercise on May 13-19 to practice quickly deploying to the border of Tajikistan.
Opinions differ within Tajikistan as to the gravity of the possible threat emanating from Afghanistan. Qosimsho Iskandarov, a Tajikistani expert on Afghanistan, told Asia-Plus in late April that “armed clashes being conducted in Kunduz, which borders Tajikistan’s Khatlon province, pose a threat to southern borders of our country and Tajikistan and its allies ought to be ready for all possible scenarios of continuation of war near our borders.”
But another local expert told Asia-Plus that “world powers” are exaggerating the threats for their own ends. “World powers such as the United States and Russia are interested in spread of so-called forecasts on threats that are allegedly posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Taliban and others militants to Central Asia’s nations, first of all Tajikistan,” said Davlatkhoja Nazirov. “Neither ISIL nor Taliban militants will go far from Afghanistan.”
