The global energy market is experiencing one of its most serious disruptions in decades following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for around 20% of global maritime trade and roughly one-third of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.
According to an analysis by Radio Liberty’s Uzbek Service and RFE/RL’s Azattyq Asia, the disruption comes amid escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Coordinated Israeli airstrikes targeting major Iranian gas facilities in South Pars and Asaluyeh, combined with Iranian retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, have effectively paralyzed tanker traffic in the region.
The market reaction has been swift. Brent crude prices surged to $116.38 per barrel on March 19, while European natural gas prices rose sharply due to tightening physical supply. The spike in gas prices has already forced fertilizer producers to cut output ahead of the planting season, raising concerns over potential crop losses and food insecurity in parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Against this backdrop, the strategic importance of Central Asia’s energy resources—particularly those of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan—has increased significantly.
Turkmen gas seen as fast-track relief option
Turkmenistan, which holds an estimated 19.5 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves, could provide one of the quickest alternative supply options. Most of its gas is currently exported to China via the Central Asia–China pipeline, with limited additional routes available.
Experts say the current crisis highlights the potential for Turkmen gas to be redirected toward Europe through the Caspian region. John Roberts, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted that relatively short pipeline connections—ranging from about 78 to just over 100 kilometers—could link Turkmen offshore fields to existing infrastructure in Azerbaijan, allowing gas to enter the Southern Gas Corridor.
Such a solution, he said, could be implemented within months by leveraging existing infrastructure, offering a rare “quick and clean” option in a market where new supply routes typically take years to develop.
Kazakhstan faces structural export constraints
In contrast, Kazakhstan’s oil sector faces more significant logistical and geopolitical challenges. The country holds around 30 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and produces approximately 1.4 million barrels per day, but about 80% of its exports depend on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium route to Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Experts note that diversifying these export routes would require years of investment. Existing alternatives, such as shipping oil across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, are limited by tanker capacity and infrastructure constraints.
“The crisis clearly shows that Central Asia’s energy infrastructure was built for a geopolitical reality that no longer exists,” Joseph Epstein, director of the Turan Center for Post-Soviet Studies, said in an interview with RFE/RL's Azattyk Asia.
Strategic shift toward Europe
Amid the disruption, attention is increasingly turning to closer energy cooperation between Central Asia and the European Union. Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is preparing for a visit to Brussels, where energy cooperation is expected to be a central topic.
A Turkmenistan-EU forum held in Ashgabat has already brought together policymakers and business leaders to explore opportunities in energy, transport, and sustainable development.
Analysts say the current crisis could mark a turning point, but whether Central Asia can capitalize on it will depend on infrastructure investments and political agreements in the coming years.
