The World Bank Group flagship report, Global Economic Prospects, January 22017: Weak Investment in Uncertain Times, notes that weak growth in Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan continues to weigh on Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Growth has reportedly remained below long-term trends in Armenia, Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan in 2016.
According to the report, the risks in the region remains tilted to the downside. The main risks could come from lower commodity prices, financial market disruption, political uncertainty or slower growth in advanced economies, including Europe and the United States, and geopolitical uncertainty in the region.
The primary downside risk for Russia and the eastern part of the region is a stalling or reversing recovery of global energy prices.
For energy exporters (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan), energy price shocks could affect macroeconomic stability through spillovers to other sectors, such as construction and transportation, fiscal pressures, strains on the exchange rate, inflation or financial system instability.
Financial strains and fiscal deterioration could trigger a pro-cyclical policy tightening to preserve fiscal and reserve buffers, which could include public spending cuts and policy interest rate increases. A deeper or longer-than-expected recession in Russia could generate intensified spillovers for the rest of the eastern part through reduced remittance flows and lower demand for exports (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan).
According to the report, the real GDP growth rate in Tajikistan is expected to stand at 4.5 percent in 2017, which is 0.3 percent less than the Bank’s forecast in June.
In 2018, the GDP growth rate in Tajikistan is expected to stand at 5.2 percent, which is 0.1 percent less than it was predicted before.
