Prices and tariffs in Tajikistan during this year will grow by 11.7 percent. The reasons for such a high inflation rate are the analysts of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) called "short-term effects of adverse weather conditions and the growth of volatility in foreign exchange rates.
"The risks of increasing inflationary pressures persist and, most likely, will lead to a more cautious approach by the regulator to lower key rates in the remainder of the year" – Says in a recently published monthly macroeconomic survey, prepared by a group of the Chief Economist of the EDB.
The authors of the Survey consider that the acceleration of inflation is caused by the depreciation of the Tajik somoni and the shock of supply."According to the results of June 2017, annual inflation was 9.0% with the NBT target of 7.0%. The increase in prices in the food sector is accelerating at a faster pace, with a 31% increase in the producer price index of agricultural products. In January – June, 2017, the supply of potatoes, carrots, onions decreased, as a result, retail prices increased more than twice.
Somoni monthly depreciates by about 2% compared to the previous month, gradually translating the devaluation effect in the dynamics of the consumer price index, "they note.
According to the forecasts of EDB analysts, the exchange rate of the Tajik currency to the dollar will increase to 8.5 somoni (for one dollar) by the end of the year..
Note that the Government of Tajikistan plans to keep inflation at 7 percent this year.
According to official statistics, for the first seven months of this year, the inflation rate in the consumer sector was 6.3 percent. In particular, food products rose by 8.5%, non-food products – by 1.6%, paid services to the population – by 6.5%.
Last year, prices and tariffs in the country grew by 6.1 percent.
The last time the double-digit inflation in Tajikistan was recorded in 2011, when prices and tariffs rose by 12.5 percent.
The lowest level of inflation during the years of independence in Tajikistan was registered in 2013 – 5.1 percent.
