World Economic Outlook Update, January 2018, which was released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on January 22, in particular, notes that global economic activity continues to firm up.
Global output is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected in the fall and ½ percentage point higher than in 2016, according to the report. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia.
Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent.
Global growth for 2017 is now estimated at 3.7 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than projected in the fall. Upside growth surprises were particularly pronounced in Europe and Asia but broad based, with outturns for both the advanced and the emerging market and developing economy groups exceeding the fall forecasts by 0.1 percentage point.
The report says the stronger momentum experienced in 2017 is expected to carry into 2018 and 2019, with global growth revised up to 3.9 percent for both years (0.2 percentage point higher relative to the fall forecasts).
Emerging and developing Asia will grow at around 6.5 percent over 2018–19, broadly the same pace as in 2017, according to the report. The region reportedly continues to account for over half of world growth. Growth is expected to moderate gradually in China (though with a slight upward revision to the forecast for 2018 and 2019 relative to the fall forecasts, reflecting stronger external demand), pick up in India, and remain broadly stable in the ASEAN-5 region.
In emerging and developing Europe, where growth in 2017 is now estimated to have exceeded 5 percent, activity in 2018 and 2019 is projected to remain stronger than previously anticipated, lifted by a higher growth forecast for Poland and especially Turkey. These revisions reflect a favorable external environment, with easy financial conditions and stronger export demand from the euro area, and, for Turkey, an accommodative policy stance.
Growth this year and next is projected to remain above 2 percent in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), supported by a slight upward revision to growth prospects for Russia in 2018.
