A new World Bank report has found that by 2050 the worsening impacts of climate change in three densely populated regions of the world could see more than 140 million people move within their countries’ borders.
With concerted action, however, including global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and robust development planning at the country level – this worst-case scenario could be dramatically reduced, by as much as 80 percent, or 100 million people.
The report identifies “hotspots” of climate in- and out-migration. These include climate-vulnerable areas from which people are expected to move, and locations into which people will try to move to build new lives and livelihoods
Humanity has always been on the move.
People move for many reasons – economic, social, and political. Now, climate change has emerged as a major driver of migration, propelling increasing numbers of people to move from vulnerable to more viable areas of their countries to build new lives.
The recently released World Bank report, Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, analyzes this phenomenon and projects forward to 2050. Focusing on three regions — Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America – the report warns that unless urgent climate and development action is taken, these three regions could be dealing with a combined total of over 140 million internal climate migrants by 2050. These people will be pushed out by droughts, failing crops, rising sea levels, and storm surges.
But there is still a way out: with concerted action – including global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, combined with robust development planning at the country level –the number of people forced to move due to climate change could be reduced by as much as 80 percent – or 100 million people.
According to the report’s “pessimistic” scenario, South Asia is projected to have 40 million internal climate migrants by 2050, with Bangladesh contributing a third of that number.
The report notes that without concrete climate and development action, Sub-Saharan Africa could have 86 million internal climate migrants by 2050, with Ethiopia one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in Africa, due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Ethiopia’s population is likely to grow by 60-85 percent by 2050, placing additional pressure on the country’s natural resources and institutions. Ethiopia is taking steps to diversify its economy and prepare for increased internal migration.
According to the report’s worst-case scenario, Latin America is projected to have 17 million internal climate migrants by 2050.
The report says that with improved policies, countries have the chance to reduce the number of people forced to move due to climate change by as much as 80 percent by 2050.
The report finds that countries can take action in three main areas: 1) cut greenhouse gases now; 2) embed climate migration in development planning; and 3) iInvest now to improve data on the scale and scope of local climate migration.
