As of October 1, 2018, Tajikistan’s external debt amounted to 2.873.8 billion U.S. dollars, which is 5.2 million U.S. dollars fewer compared to January 1, 2018.
Recall, Tajikistan’s external debt rose nearly 26.1 percent in a year to December 31, 2017, reaching 2.879 billion U.S. dollars. As of January 1, 2018, the country’s external debt-to-GDP ratio amounted to 40.3 percent.
Over the first six months of this year, Tajikistan's national budget has allocated 90.6 million U.S. dollars for payment of principal debt and debt interest.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the debt owed by the government amounts to some 2.727.3 billion U.S. dollars, which is nearly 95 percent total external debt.
The government guaranteed debts reportedly amount to 36.3 million dollars and debts of state-run enterprises not secured through government guarantees amount to 31.5 million U.S. dollars.
The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) now owes 62.2 million U.S. dollars to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 6 million U.S. dollars to China and 3.5 million U.S. dollars to the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB).
China remains Tajikistan’s largest creditor. Tajikistan now reportedly owes more than 1.2 billion to the export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank).
Besides, Tajikistan now also owes 318 million U.S. dollars to the World Bank, 278 million U.S. dollars to the Asian Development Bank and 112 million U.S. dollars to the Islamic Development Bank.
Despite unsettled debts, Tajikistan intends to borrow another 650.6 million U.S. dollars within the coming two years under the national foreign-borrowing program projected for 2018-2020: 295.9 million USD in 2019; and 354.7 million USD in 2020.
Meanwhile, the World Bank analysts note that the loans for public investment projects (particularly from China), the issuance of domestic debt to support the energy sector (TJS 530 million), and the issuance of a US$500 million Eurobond in September last year are the primary drivers of the rise in Tajikistan’s external debt.
Tajikistan: Heightened Vulnerabilities, Despite Sustained Growth, a report released by the World Bank on December 28, 2017 says the recently updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) suggests that Tajikistan’s debt distress level rose from moderate to high in the baseline scenario as several important indicators passed indicative thresholds. The latter reportedly reflects the country’s weakened ability to earn foreign exchange for servicing its external debt which started increasing at an accelerated pace.
The report says the Tajik authorities intend to revise the medium-term debt strategy (MTDS) and relax the domestic fiscal rule on the debt ceiling by increasing it from the current 40 percent of GDP to 60 percent of GDP.
