Real GDP growth will slow to 5.5–5.0 percent over 2020–21 reflecting weaker growth in the Russian Federation and lower international commodity prices. Remittance inflows will remain sluggish over the medium-term, says a report released by the World Bank on November 29.
Tajikistan: Economic Update – Fall 2019 – Heightening Fiscal Risks in Tajikistan noes that mining, manufacturing, and construction will support economic activity.
The World Bank analysts consider that several investment projects scheduled for completion by 2021will also support growth. Risks are on the downside, however, unless the authorities implement the necessary reforms to reinvigorate private sector development and fully restore fiscal sustainability, the report says.
Rising pressure for additional public spending will complicate the fiscal outlook.
In addition to large, ongoing infrastructure projects—which will require securing additional financial resources—the country’s electoral cycle assumes some increases in public sector wages, social transfers, and commitments to invest in projects dedicated to the independence celebrations in 2021.
The current account deficit is projected to narrow only modestly, from 5 percent of GDP in 2019 to around 4 percent of GDP toward the end of 2021–22, owing to increased electricity exports following the reconnection of Tajikistan’s electricity system to the Central Asian Power System.
In 2018, the real GDP growth in Tajikistan stood at 7.3 percent. This year, the real GP growth in Tajikistan is expected to stand at 7.2 percent, according to the report.
