The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB)’s analysts forecast Tajikistan’s economic growth to slow down in 2020 due to worsened external factors. This finding is presented in the Macroeconomic Review published by the EDB’s Directorate for Research.
“The economic growth will be affected by negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic that will weaken external demand. Rise in federal social spending and increase in output in the metallurgical industry will support the economic growth. It must be emphasized that the mentioned factors have been taken into consideration in the EBD”S prognosis only partially,” EBD’s analysts note.
According to the review, Tajikistan’s economic growth accelerated from 7.3 percent in 2018 to 7.5 percent in 2019, largely due to increase in production in the mining and agrarian sectors.
The review says inflation in Tajikistan last year stood at 8.0 percent (2.6 percent increase compared to 2018). Inflation reportedly increased due to rise in prices for food products.
EBD’s analysts predict that reduction in cost of energy and food products outside the country will help curb inflation in 2020-2022 neat the target interval (6+/-2%).
Konstantin Fyodorov, Analyst of the EDB’s Economic Analysis Department, suggests that risks of economic slowdown prevail in Tajikistan in the short term.
He further added that deterioration of the external economic environment would affect labor migrants’ remittances and export earnings.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial institution founded by Russia and Kazakhstan in January 2006 with the mission to facilitate the development of market economies, sustainable economic growth, and the expansion of mutual trade and other economic ties in its member states. The EDB's charter capital totals US $7 billion. The member states of the Bank are the Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and the Republic of Tajikistan.
