The World Bank’s Tajikistan Emergency COVID-19 Project (Project) notes that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) may cause between 72,000 and 230,500 severe infections, in the country.
Based on the data available today, depending on the prevalence of COVID-19 infection in Tajikistan, the disease may cause between 13,600 and 43,500 critical infections requiring intensive care, and between 6,600 and 21,000 deaths, according to the Project.
The Project notes that COVID-19 pandemic may lead to substantial increases in food prices in Tajikistan.
The World Bank offers the following non-pharmaceutical interventions: 1) isolating cases of COVID-19 at home; 2) voluntary home quarantine; 3) social distancing for the entire population; 4) social distancing for the most vulnerable population – people over the age of 70; and 5) closure of schools and universities, can limit the spread of the disease in the population.
The most effective combination of those interventions: home isolation of COVID-19 cases, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing of persons over the age of 70, has the potential to limit the spread of COVID-19 infection and reduce the number of critical cases and number of deaths by 49%, according to the Project.
When applied to the estimates of potential morbidity and mortality in Tajikistan, this combination of interventions reportedly could avert between 3,200 and 10,300 deaths and between 6,600 and 21,300 of critical cases of COVID-19 infection.
