The Tajik national currency, the somoni (TJS), is expected to lose 3.0% of its value against the dollar (USD) annually in 2021-2023.
According to the forecasts of key macroeconomic variables endorsed by the government in late July this year, the exchange rate of TJS against USD will be 11:1 in 2021, 11.33:1 in 2022, and 11.67:1 in 2023.
Over the first six months year, TJS has lost 6.4 percent of its value against USD at the National Bank rate and 8.7 percent at the market rate.
The current official exchange rate of the somoni against the dollar is 10.31:1.
This year, Tajikistan saw sharp currency devaluation in late March, when the somoni lost nearly 5.3 percent of its value against the dollar (at the National Bank rate), when an average official buying rate of USD against TJS increased from 1:9.7 in mid-March to 1:10.2 on March 30.
The NBT specialists attribute devaluation of the Tajik national currency against the dollar to impact of global and regional economic and financial processes, a negative trade balance, decline in remittances and decrease in supply in the country’s currency market.
The official exchange rate is the rate of exchange announced by a country's foreign exchange administration, usually used by countries with strict foreign exchange controls.
The market exchange rate refers to the real exchange rate for trading foreign exchange in the free market.
Tajikistan has mainly resorted to “administrative resources” to keep the currency on an even keel.
In December 2015, the National Bank ordered the closure of all unauthorized currency exchange points in the city. After that, only banks were able to perform foreign exchange operations. Anybody found violating this new arrangement could face jail terms of up to nine years. Also, banks are forbidden by law from selling somoni at more than 1.5 percent the rate established by the National Bank.
