An exchange rate of the dollar (USD) against the Tajik national currency, the somoni (TJS), set by the National Bank of Tajikistan on September 2 was 1:10.3198.
At the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of USD against TJS was 1:9.6910. It means that the somoni has lost 6.5 percent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year.
By the end of this year, the exchange rate of USD against TJS is predicted to be 1:10.69.
The NBT attribute depreciation of the somoni against the dollar to impact of economic and financial processes that have occurred in the world and in the region, especially in the countries, which are major trading partners of Tajikistan, as well as a negative trade balance, decline in remittances and decrease in supply in the country’s currency market..
To minimize exchange rate pressure, prevent impact of existing currency risks and ensure observance of 2-percent difference between the official and market exchange rates, Tajik central bank in March made a one-time correction of the official exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar up to 5 percent.
Meanwhile, the Tajik government predicts that the Tajik national currency will lose 3.0% of its value against the dollar annually in 2021-2023.
According to the forecasts of key macroeconomic variables endorsed by the government in late July this year, the exchange rate of TJS against USD will be 11:1 in 2021, 11.33:1 in 2022, and 11.67:1 in 2023.
Over the first six months year, TJS has lost 6.4 percent of its value against USD at the National Bank rate and 8.7 percent at the market rate.
This year, Tajikistan saw sharp currency devaluation in late March, when the somoni lost nearly 5.3 percent of its value against the dollar (at the National Bank rate), when an average official buying rate of USD against TJS increased from 1:9.7 in mid-March to 1:10.2 on March 30.
The official exchange rate is the rate of exchange announced by a country's foreign exchange administration, usually used by countries with strict foreign exchange controls.
The market exchange rate refers to the real exchange rate for trading foreign exchange in the free market.
Tajikistan has mainly resorted to “administrative resources” to keep the currency on an even keel.
In December 2015, the National Bank ordered the closure of all unauthorized currency exchange points in the city. After that, only banks were able to perform foreign exchange operations. Anybody found violating this new arrangement could face jail terms of up to nine years. Also, banks are forbidden by law from selling somoni at more than 2.0 percent the rate established by the National Bank.
