Climate change could trigger the resettlement of more than 2.4 million people in Central Asia by 2050, says World Bank update Groundswell.
The influx of "climatic" migrants is predicted to the Fergana Valley (territories of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan), the lowlands in the south of Tajikistan, including Dushanbe, as well as Tashkent and relatively densely populated areas in the north of Kazakhstan.
Outflow zones are expected to be areas along the southern border of Kazakhstan, areas adjacent to the Fergana Valley in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as land around Bishkek.
The relocation of people to the indicated territories by the authors of the report is associated with "the expected increase in the availability of water and crop yields".
Overall, the report stresses, by 2050, climate change, an increasingly powerful driver of migration, could force 216 million people in six regions of the world to relocate to other parts of their countries.
It is noted that the number of internal climate migrants in sub-Saharan Africa could reach 86 million, in East Asia and the Pacific – 49 million, in South Asia – 40 million, in North Africa – 19 million, in Latin America – 17 million and in Eastern Europe and Central Asia – 5 million.
Hotbeds of internal climatic migration may form very soon by 2030, and as approach 2050, the growth of the scale and intensity of this process will continue.
However, the report's authors point out that immediate concerted action to reduce global emissions and support green, inclusive and sustainable development could reduce climate migration by as much as 80%.
