Tajikistan authorities project inflation in 2022 and in the medium term (2023-2024) to stand at 6.0 percent, says Tajikistan’s Monetary Policy Forecast for the mentioned period.
The document, in particular, outlines the tight monetary policy by the U.S. Central Bank (Federal Reserve System) as the main risk.
The Monetary Policy Forecast was endorsed by Tajikistan’s lower chamber (Majlisi Namoyandagon) in late 2021.
The document notes that increase in the rate of the Federal Reserve System may result in rise in exchange rate and inflationary pressures in the region.
The Monetary Policy Forecast underlines that factors that may lead to a significant increase in inflation in the country arise mainly due to the impact of external shocks such as the rise in the international prices for food products and fuels since a significant share of goods enters the domestic market from abroad.
According to the document, the imported products account for about 60 percent of goods in the country’s consumer basket.
In addition to this, political instability in neighboring countries and the region may also negatively affect the growth rate of the country’s economy and cause to some extent additional exchange rate and inflationary pressure, the document says.
The document authors conclude that the economy of Tajikistan depends on changes in foreign economic conditions and remains vulnerable in the event of changes in foreign states’ policy as it is an integral part of the world economy.
Recall, inflation in Tajikistan’s consumer goods sector over the first eleven months of 2021, reportedly stood at 7.5 percent.
The cost of products of the food industry increased on average by 6.3 percent in January-November last year, non-foodstuffs over the reporting period reportedly rose in cost on average 6.9 percent, and prices and rates for services rendered to the population in January-November last year reportedly increased by 11.5 percent.
