CABAR.asia notes that the war between Russia and Ukraine has broken the trend of departure of ethnic Russians from Kazakhstan to Russia. The number of those changing their place of residence reportedly dropped sharply. Experts, however, say it is a temporary lull.
Mass immigration from Kazakhstan began in the 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Over a million people reportedly left the country in 1996-2000. The annual outflow could reach almost 300,000 people (299.500 in 1997).
According to the article, the outflow of people decreased in the following years. Every year in the 2010s, 20000-40000 people were leaving. The biggest contribution to immigration was made by the seven regions sharing the border with Russia because of the high proportion of Russians in the population structure. In early 2022, a proportion of citizens with Russian ethnic background in these regions reportedly was from one third to one half of all population (except for Atyrau region on the border with Russia.
Over the last decade, 1,000 to 4,000 people reportedly left the said regions every year. The Article notes that the reasons for immigration were various: psychological – finding people “close in spirit”, or the feeling of being underprivileged in the ‘country of origin’; economic – opportunity to earn more and get education in Russia, special allowances paid upon child birth, or to those who settle in Siberia and Far East.
However, the trend “broke” sharply three years ago – the outflow declined significantly. In 2019, 31,000 people relocated from Kazakhstan, and in 2020, only 19,000. In some border regions, the decline was almost two-fold.
The reason is reportedly obvious – the COVID-19 pandemic followed by the mass lockdown in Kazakhstan and Russia, restrictions on movements between the countries. Life began to return to normal only at the end of 2021: borders were opened, transportation resumed. But, the 2022 figures fell down instead of getting back to the pre-pandemic level: only 14,800 left the country (31,100 in 2021).
Experts note that the sanctions imposed on Russia, rise in prices and mobilization could be the main reasons for the change in the immigration trend.
However, according to experts, this is a lull similar to the pandemic period.
Experts note that migration attitudes among Kazakhstan-based citizens of Russian ethnic background will be declining amid the war in Ukraine and its consequences in the next following years. It will take a long time for the economy and social sphere of Russia to recover, even after the end of the war.
Besides, according to the experts, returning combatants in Russia already have a high rate of violence in the society and families because of the post-war syndrome.
