By the end of 2023, we can expect a slowdown in the growth of Tajikistan's economy, according to the August issue of the Macroeconomic Review of the Eurasian Development Bank.
It notes that in the first half of this year, the republic's economy grew by 8.3%.
"Due to strong domestic demand and relatively low economic activity a year earlier, the main indicators of economic dynamics for June remained double-digit," the authors of the publication note.
However, according to their estimates, these indicators will decrease by the end of 2023 "due to a reduction in the volume of remittances coming to Tajikistan in the context of the weakening of the Russian ruble."
"They will also be negatively affected by the fact that in the final months of the year, activity in the economy will be compared with that observed in similar periods last year, when the economy has already largely recovered after the drawdown in spring of 2022," the review emphasizes.
EDB analysts note that consumer price growth (2.4%) in the country remains the lowest since mid-2018.
"We expect that in August – September, inflation will move towards the target levels of the National Bank (6.2%), and by the end of 2023 and early 2024 it may be at the upper limit or above this interval on the background of a return to rising prices for food and services," the publication emphasizes.
It says that the exchange rate of the Tajik currency has remained near the level of 10.9 somoni per dollar since the end of February this year.
"We expect that the return of somoni to the trajectory of gradual weakening in the second half of this year and in 2024 will contribute to strengthening the balance of payments of Tajik economy, as well as contribute to the return of inflation to the limits of the National Bank's goals," the review concludes.
