Radio Liberty asked some of its most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for its vast broadcast region.
Chris Rickleton has made his predictions regarding Central Asia, including Tajikistan. He, in particular, noted that 2023 was a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners widen their diplomatic horizons.
According to him, with Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have reportedly made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.
And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.
However, there ought not to write Russia off just yet, the journalist says, noting that one of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood last year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.
Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.
The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.
The journalist notes that Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.
In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.
That amendment had an obvious beneficiary — veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.
Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.
From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.
But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort, the journalist says, noting that rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.
And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.
Concerning Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, the journalist notes that official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia.
Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019. Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns — with larger volumes but gentler spikes — while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.
“Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia,” says Rickleton. “But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing. So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.”
