Last year, Tajikistan topped the list of countries with the highest shares of remittances to GDP, with 48.2%, says a reported released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
“Labor Migration in Asia: Trends, Skills Certification, and Seasonal Work”, in particular, notes that limited opportunities in the country push workers to seek better employment abroad, primarily in the Russian Federation in the construction and services sectors.
Demographics and impact of remittances
Most of these migrant workers are reportedly male and aged between 15 to 44 years old, and their remittances substantially contribute to household spending especially non-food items and education.
Remittance inflows to Tajikistan suddenly surged 83.0% in 2022 to US$5.3 billion, almost double the US$2.9 billion in the previous year. In 2023, this further went up by 6.6% to US$5.7 billion.
Surpassing predictions amid conflict
Experts from international financial institutions had anticipated a decline in remittance levels from Russia following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Contrary to these predictions, remittance volumes sharply increased in 2022.
A report by the World Bank, “Migration and Development Brief”, which was released in November 2022 says the growth of global remittance flows is expected to be 4.9 percent in 2022. Remittance flows to developing regions were reportedly shaped by several factors in 2022. Besides the determination of migrants to help their families back home, a gradual reopening of various sectors in host countries’ economies expanded many migrants’ income and employment situation. On the other hand, rising prices adversely affected migrants’ real incomes and their remittances. In Russia, rising oil prices and continued demand for migrant workers reportedly increased the flow of remittances to Central Asian countries.
According to the report, in 2022, remittance flows are likely to exceed, significantly, and remittance flows from Russia to its neighboring countries are likely to increase, at least for some time.
It was reportedly anticipated that remittances to the CIS would plummet in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan likely received record high amounts of remittances from Russia in 2022, as the number of migrant workers in Russia from Central Asia remained strong (in part due to a strong ruble).
Discrepancies in migrant statistics
Accurately determining the number of Tajik labor migrants in Russia is challenging due to significant discrepancies in official data from both countries.
Russian statistics indicate that more than 1.5 million Tajik citizens live and work in Russia, while Tajikistan’s relevant authorities claim the number is less than 1 million.
According to Tajikistan's Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of the Population, just over 600,000 people left the country for labor migration in 2023.
However, Russian migration authorities report that over 800,000 Tajik labor migrants entered Russia in search of work in the first nine months of the year alone.
