Tajik political scientist Abdghani Mamadazimov notes that the Astana Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO summit highlighted the organization's expansion with the inclusion of Belarus and emphasized the importance of both internal and external cooperation. The summit underscored the adoption of the Astana Declaration addressing geopolitical instability and promoting peace. This expansion moves the SCO closer to Europe and increases its democratic processes. Further, the collaboration between Central Asian countries, like the upcoming visit of Kazakhstan's president to Tajikistan, is seen as crucial for regional stability and growth, particularly in trade, industrial cooperation, and labor migration.
Deepening and Widening
Since the creation of this regional organization, there has been a discussion about its further development. Among the supporters of the “deepening” policy (a moratorium on the admission of new members) and "widening" (admitting new members), the former have predominated. Proponents of this approach argued that it was necessary to hold off on admitting new members to further strengthen the internal ties of the new international organization. This policy reportedly continued for 17 years (until 2018), when two major South Asian countries (India and Pakistan) became full members of the organization.
Now, after the strengthening of the SCO, supporters of the "widening" policy have come to dominate. However, the COVID-19 pandemic became a serious obstacle to admitting new members who had long been candidate countries (Iran and Belarus). As the pandemic weakened, interstate relations revived, and the authority of the SCO as an interregional organization grew. After India, “the world's largest democracy,” joined, the SCO shed its label as a “club of autocrats.” It was India that had the good fortune to open a new period of membership admission when Iran became the ninth full member of the organization last June.
The inclusion of Iran, one of the key countries in the Middle East, stirred the region. A number of countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) began to take a closer look at the activities of this now interregional organization and acquired the status of “dialogue partners.” It was expected that the next country would be admitted next year when China, the leading country of the organization, would chair. However, the idea of "Central Asia as the Core of the SCO," developed in the capitals of Central Asia’s nations and first tested at the Dushanbe summit (September 2021), began to materialize by the Astana summit.
In other words, until this summit, all key decisions within this prestigious organization were made in the capitals of the leading countries (Beijing, Moscow, or New Delhi). Now, the admission of one of the Eastern European countries (Belarus) in one of the Central Asian capitals marks a new period in its activities—equality of all countries (small and large) within the SCO.
Achievements of the SCO Summit in Astana
With the admission of Belarus, the SCO not only approached the borders of Europe, which claims the high title of “the democratic world,” but also developed its democratic procedures. The expert notes that the “consensus” procedure practiced by the SCO is more democratic than “voting,” where a minority country like Hungary, despite trying to stay in trend, is followed by the label of “notorious rebel,” an unusual image for the democratic world.
In other words, Eastern procedures and values, which, before making important decisions, provide for numerous negotiations to bring positions closer (even polar ones) and the development of decisions by universal consensus, have become more attractive than dividing member countries based on the results of voting. Therefore, a number of Arab countries are beginning to reorient themselves towards the SCO.
Practical achievements of the latest SCO summit also include the adoption of the Astana Declaration, which expresses concern about geopolitical turbulence in Eurasia and calls for ending wars and crises and achieving peace and stability.
Mamadazimov says the external backdrop of the Astana summit was the state visit of the Chinese President to Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, marking the return of China to the region. Establishing comprehensive strategic partnerships by China in a new era with almost all countries in the region reportedly can be seen as the final return of the Eastern giant to the region through its sought-after mega-project "One Belt, One Road."
Perhaps the West has reportedly begun to draw the right conclusions from both ancient and modern history. “When the most famous conqueror of the ancient world, Alexander the Great, came to us with a sword at his side, our ancestors put up strong resistance. But when, after him, a Chinese imperial envoy came with silk under his arm, we began to trade. As a result, we gave the world the Great Silk Road,” the political scientist noted.
In modern times, the West reportedly wanted to instill its values in the deeply traditional Afghan society and got "punched in the teeth." Instead of a "democratic paradise," it ultimately left behind a "terrorist hell." “Now, as China rushes to us from the east to strengthen transcontinental trade, the European Union is returning from the West this time with a constructive idea of the "Global Gateway." This constructive idea will firmly link Europe with China through Central Asia,” said Mamadazimov.
He further noted that after the full inclusion of Belarus in the SCO's activities, many prematurely started shouting about a confrontation between the SCO and NATO, which is illogical since the SCO's primary focus is on its own sustainable development and that of its trading partners, including the prosperous West.
Further Steps
“The further success of the Astana SCO summit, in our opinion, will be ensured by the upcoming visit of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Tajikistan in the second half of August,” said Mamadazimov. “The fact is that if China rushes from the east through our region to the West (to Europe) and Europe moves towards it through us, we need to strengthen the internal ties of the region according to the "North-South" scheme (or the "Astana-Amu Darya" scheme).”
Strengthening of ties between the two countries, with Kazakhstan representing the northern part of Central Asia and Tajikistan the southern part, reportedly aligns with regional interests, as the region's multilateral ties will ensure the sustainable growth of all countries in the region. Otherwise, the region, claiming the status of "the core of Central Asia," could become merely a transport crossroads for external players.
Therefore, the two national leaders of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan need to ensure the transition of bilateral relations to a qualitatively new level in the upcoming negotiations. If in the past and present Kazakhstan has acted as a reliable guarantor of food security for Tajikistan, providing a sufficient amount of grain (approximately 300,000-400,000 tons per year) in a timely manner, then Tajikistan in recent years has also increased the export of agricultural products to Kazakhstan.
However, Tajikistan, which in recent years has focused on implementing the fourth national strategy—accelerated industrialization—also needs active participation from Kazakhstan, which has significant achievements in mining and metallurgy.
The situation in labor migration from Tajikistan also highlights the need for the leading role of Astana, which could double or triple the reception of Tajik labor migrants in various fields of work.
“Brotherly Kazakhstan, during the years of civil conflict, ensured the security of the key Darvoz direction of the Tajik-Afghan border. During these years and the years of post-conflict recovery, it supplied us with much-needed grain,” said the expert. “Now that both brotherly countries have embarked on the path of sustainable development, expanding cooperation in mining, metallurgy, and the processing industry, as well as significantly increasing the reception of Tajik labor migrants, would meet the national interests of both Tajikistan and Kazakhstan.”
