Within the next three years, Tajikistan plans to produce more than half of its import-substituting products domestically, and thereby reducing its dependence on imports.
Mr. Ashurboy Solehzoda, Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan, announced this at a news conference in Dushanbe on August 6, stating that the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first half of 2024 has amounted to 61.7 billion somonis, with a real growth rate of 8.2%.
The growth of the national economy is reportedly attributed to increases in production of industrial goods by 11.5%, agricultural goods by 9.6%, paid services by 16.6%, investments in fixed capital by 15.7%, trade turnover by 11.9%, freight transportation by 13.8%, and passenger carriage by 9%.
According to Solehzoda, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MoEDT) has developed a new forecast for the main macroeconomic indicators of the country for 2025-2027. This document reportedly predicts that the volume of industrial production in forecast prices of the respective years will grow by approximately 20% annually, while agricultural production will grow by 7.5%.
By 2027, Tajikistan reportedly plans to increase its foreign trade turnover to US$9.7 billion, including US$3.5 billion in exports.
It is noteworthy that Tajikistan's foreign trade turnover for the first half of 2024 exceeded US$4.4 billion, with exports reaching nearly US$1 billion.
In 2023, the country’s foreign trade turnover was more than US$8.3 billion, with exports amounting to US$2.4 billion.
According to a MoEDT, over the next three years, electricity exports will rise 38% to 5.5 billion kWh, valued at US$190 million.
Primary aluminum exports will reach 128,000 tons, worth US$292 million, a 77.4-present increase compared to 2024 forecasts.
Within the next three years, the export volumes of fruit and vegetable products, cement, hosiery, and textile products is expected to be significantly increased.
However, due to the commissioning of new raw material processing enterprises within the country, the export of cotton fiber, ores, and concentrates will decrease by 20-40%.
Moreover, Tajikistan plans to reduce imports of pasta, meat and dairy products, flour, vegetable oil, and mineral fertilizers by 10-30% within the next three years.
At the same time, imports of goods such as petroleum products, liquefied gas, alumina, timber, and wheat will increase over the reporting period. These products are essential for the production of other import-substituting products within the country. The primary focus will be on increasing production in the light and food industries.
