Consumer confidence in Tajikistan continues to decline, reaching 148.8 points in October this year, down from 149.6 points in September. This is stated in the monthly macroeconomic report by Freedom Finance Global.
The primary decline is attributed to worsening conditions for major purchases, which have dropped to a five-month low. Despite this, Tajikistan remains the leader in Central Asia in terms of consumer confidence, showing moderate optimism in other areas.
Decline in major purchases
The steepest decline occurred in the subindex assessing conditions for major purchases, which fell by 13.4 points to 81.7. Only 40% of respondents now consider conditions favorable, a drop of 5.6% compared to September.
This decline affected all age groups, especially those over 60 and those aged 30–44. The only group maintaining optimism is youth under 29, with 44.9% rating the situation positively.
Economic optimism on the rise
Despite the drop in major purchases, the assessment of the economic situation improved. The economic optimism subindex rose from 168.8 to 173.6 points, marking the second-highest score in 2024.
A notable 85% of respondents expressed optimism, an increase of 4.2% from September. The largest growth in optimism was seen among respondents aged 30–44, while the older generation also showed high confidence in the economy, with 90.5% expressing trust.
Declining inflation expectations
October brought improved sentiment regarding inflation. The share of respondents reporting a sharp increase in prices fell from 27.3% to 23.9%. Over a 12-month outlook, expectations of price growth dropped from 31.2% to 26.6%.
However, concerns remain about rising prices for staple goods such as meat, oil, and flour. The share of respondents noticing price hikes for meat rose to 58.1%, a record for the past five months.
Stable devaluation expectations
Approximately 18.7% of respondents expect the somoni to weaken in the next month, up by 2.9% from September. On an annual basis, expectations are declining, from 24.5% to 23.1%. Unlike neighboring countries, the somonis exchange rate remains stable, tempering devaluation concerns.
Despite the overall decline in the index, Tajikistan’s citizens remain confident in the economy, though inflation and devaluation remain key concerns.
How are the neighbors doing?
Kazakhstan: The confidence index has risen for the second consecutive month, reaching 104.5 points. However, devaluation expectations are growing, with over 59% of respondents forecasting a weakening of the tenge.
Uzbekistan: The index climbed to 132.5 points, although inflation expectations remain moderate.
Kyrgyzstan: The index declined to 137.2 points, with residents increasingly worried about rising food prices.
