The bilateral trade between Tajikistan and China has been growing rapidly in recent years, bringing China closer to surpassing Russia, which has been Tajikistan's major trading partner for over two decades.
According to the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan, a two-way trade between Tajikistan and China has risen nearly 30% over the first three quarters of this year, reaching about US$1.4 billion.
The bilateral trade between Tajikistan and Russia has reportedly risen 18 percent over the reporting period, reaching little more than US$1.4 billion.
Over the same nine-month period, China reportedly accounted for 21.2% of Tajikistan’s external trade turnover, while Russia's share stood at 22.3%. For comparison, in 2019, China’s share was only 14.6%, while Russia’s share was 23.3%.
At that time (2019), China lagged behind Kazakhstan in trade with Tajikistan, with Kazakhstan holding a 21.2% share.
Over the first nine months of this year, Kazakhstan’s share has reportedly dropped to 15%.
The growth in the bilateral trade between Tajikistan and China has been consistent over the past three years: in 2021, it increased by 77.5%; in 2022, by 44.2%; and in 2023, by 24.2%.
The two-way trade between Tajikistan and Russia reportedly rose 39% in 2021, 23.7% in 2022, but only 2.5% in 2023.
The sharp increase in 2021 and its subsequent slowdown can be attributed to a phased recovery after the pandemic-induced decline in 2020, when trade with China fell 28.5% and with Russia 7.6%.
Over the same nine-month period, in Tajikistan-China trade, Chinese exports have dominated, accounting for over 80% of the total bilateral trade. China is also among the top three markets for Tajikistan’s exports, along with Kazakhstan and Switzerland.
According to statistics, the two-way trade between Tajikistan and China in January-September 2024 has valued at about US$1.361 billion. This consisted of Tajikistan’s exports to China estimated at about US$269.1 million and Tajikistan’s imports from China worth approximately US$1.1 billion.
Tajikistan's exports to China reportedly include various minerals, non-ferrous and rare metals (antimony, zinc, lead, unprocessed aluminum, and aluminum alloys), cotton fiber, leather raw materials, silk fabrics and raw silk, dried fruits, and more.
China accounts for 21.7% of Tajikistan's total imports, and Tajikistan’s imports from China include mainly mechanical devices and their parts, ferrous metals and their products, electrical machines and components, vehicles, plastics, pharmaceuticals, optical and medical instruments, construction materials, as well as consumer goods such as clothing, footwear, furniture, household appliances, and more.
Officials from both countries have repeatedly highlighted the potential for significantly increasing trade volumes.
In May last year, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon stated during a visit to China that the high growth in trade between the two countries “gives serious grounds to believe that in the near future we can reach the goal of increasing the bilateral trade turnover to US$3 billion.”
Independent experts consider this expectation realistic, given the growth dynamics of recent years and the likelihood that existing barriers will be removed in the near future.
