The economic growth of Tajikistan in 2025 is expected to remain the highest among the member countries of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). This is attributed to high metal prices and low costs for energy and food imports.
The EDB's Macroeconomic Forecast, which was published on November 5, notes that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will lead the region with the highest economic growth rates in 2025, while Russia and Belarus will see the lowest.
The EDB forecasts Tajikistan's GDP growth at 8.4% in 2025, Armenia's at 5.5%, Belarus' at 2.6%, Kazakhstan's at 5.5%, Kyrgyzstan's at 8.7%, and Russia's at 2.4%.
The growth in Tajikistan is driven by “higher prices for gold and other metals, which form the core of the country's exports, as well as lower prices for imported energy and food products.”
“Reduced import costs will free up additional funds for consumption and investment, positively impacting economic growth,” EDB analysts note.
They add that “GDP growth in Tajikistan will remain the highest among EDB member nations due to its catch-up development model and rapid population growth.”
The report highlights strong domestic demand and robust export growth in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, ensuring economic expansion exceeding global averages. Industrial growth in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is expected to outpace GDP growth, with high investment activity anticipated.
In Kazakhstan, a supportive fiscal policy, lower interest rates, increased oil production, and government initiatives for regional development and infrastructure are expected to drive economic growth.
In Russia, economic activity will be bolstered by fiscal stimulus and increased exports to China, while in Belarus, growth will be fueled by rising demand from Russia and high consumer activity.
The EDB also predicts a gradual return of inflation rates to target levels across the region. Consumer price growth is expected to slow from 7.9% in 2024 to 6.4% in 2025.
High interest rates will continue to contain inflation, forecasted at 6.5% in Russia and 7.3% in Kazakhstan.
In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, inflation is expected to stay within target ranges, reaching 5.0% in Kyrgyzstan and 5.8% in Tajikistan by the end of 2025.
In Armenia, inflation will rise to the lower boundary of the target range (4±1.5%), reaching 3.1%.
In Belarus, inflation is projected to accelerate moderately to 6.6% by the end of 2025.
The Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial institution investing in Eurasia. For more than eighteen years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The EDB's charter capital totals US$7 billion. Its portfolio mainly consists of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and mechanical engineering. The Bank’s operations are guided by the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles. The Eurasian Development Bank has observer status in the UN General Assembly.
