According to analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Tajikistan is projected to achieve real GDP growth of 8.4% in 2025, driven by trade and investment dynamics, rising gold export prices, and lower costs for imported energy.
This forecast exceeds the government’s minimum projection of 8.0%.
Inflation in 2025 is expected to be 5.9%, returning to the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT)’s target range by year-end, supported by strong economic demand.
The NBT’s target range is 6.0% (±2 percentage points). Tajikistan recorded a historically low inflation rate of 3.6% in 2024.
EDB analysts anticipate a slight increase in the refinancing rate (by 1 percentage point) as inflation gradually returns to the target range. The refinancing rate has been at 9.0% since August 5, 2024.
Currency outlook
The EDB projects the Tajik national currency, the somoni, to trade at 11 somonis per USD by the end of 2025. Slight depreciation is attributed to increased imports and reduced remittance flows.
The official exchange rate as of January 8, 2025, stands at 10.9450 somoni per USD, with the somoni strengthening by 0.2% against the dollar throughout 2024.
The Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial institution investing in Eurasia. For more than eighteen years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The EDB's charter capital totals US$7 billion. Its portfolio mainly consists of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and mechanical engineering. The Bank’s operations are guided by the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles. The Eurasian Development Bank has observer status in the UN General Assembly.
