Kazakhstan continues proving the bulk of Tajikistan’s wheat imports. Kazakhstan demonstrated a significant increase in exports, particularly to Central Asian countries, including Tajikistan. According to the Kazakhstan Grain Union, wheat exports to Tajikistan last year grew by 18% compared to the previous year. This reflects the rising demand for grain and increased interest in Kazakh wheat.
In January this, Tajikistan significantly increased its wheat import volumes, bringing in 112,800 tons of grain. This is 2.4 times more compared to the same period last year, highlighting the growing domestic demand and the need to strengthen food security.
Economic conditions and risks
In the context of rising global wheat prices and unstable supply chains, experts recommend accelerating the purchase of Kazakh grain. This is especially relevant in light of potential restrictions on wheat exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Should prices increase or the export ban to Russia be lifted, there could be a shortage of grain in Central Asian countries, including Tajikistan.
Although domestic wheat prices in Kazakhstan have fallen due to the strengthening of the tenge, the situation on international markets remains tense. Purchasing grain under current conditions could be a profitable long-term strategy, particularly in view of expected price increases and potential export restrictions.
The role of subsidies and price stabilization
One of the key factors influencing the export of Kazakh wheat is the subsidies provided by the Kazakhstan government. Under the proposed order for transport subsidies for the company "Prodcorporation," the price of wheat for export to Central Asia will not fall below US$190 per ton. Despite concerns among market participants about potential price drops due to subsidies, experts are confident that they will not lead to a decrease in the market value of grain.
For Tajikistan, an important aspect is the possibility of using additional subsidies of 20,000 tenge per ton for wheat deliveries from Kazakhstan into Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and China. This will help optimize purchases and mitigate the impact of price fluctuations.
Stabilizing the grain market and preventing shortages
Experts advise Tajikistan to accelerate its purchases of Kazakh grain to avoid potential shortages and rising prices in the future. With growing global prices and unstable supply chains, timely procurement can help prevent food security issues in the long term. It is also important to take advantage of subsidies, which will reduce financial burdens and ensure a stable supply.
It is essential to account for potential market changes, including risks of price increases and the lifting of the export ban to Russia, which could affect supply volumes to Central Asia. Tajikistan should plan its purchases in advance and consider possible changes in market competition associated with subsidies, experts note.
Kazakhstan as a key partner for Tajikistan
Kazakhstan continues to be an important grain supplier to Tajikistan. In 2024, Kazakhstan supplied about 1.3 million tons of grain to Tajikistan, which is a 57% increase compared to 2023. This increase in supply resulted from Kazakhstan's efforts to support farmers and develop agriculture, as well as its desire to meet the needs of Tajik consumers.
To ensure reliable grain supplies to Tajikistan, JSC "NC Prodcorporation" has proposed investing in Kazakhstan's agricultural sector so that local farmers can grow crops that meet Tajik consumers' requirements. Additionally, further measures are being discussed to expand cooperation in the supply of sugar, vegetable oil, and meat, which will open up new opportunities to strengthen trade relations between the two countries.
