Central Asia, including Tajikistan, is experiencing a faster rate of warming than the global average, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The region is urged to urgently adapt to increasing climate threats, including droughts, glacier loss, and unpredictable precipitation, which endanger water supply, agriculture, and energy sectors.
The WMO’s long-term forecast, titled Climate Prospects for 2025–2029, predicts sustained warming in Central Asia, with all years in the 2025–2029 period likely to exceed the climate norms of 1991–2020. In some years, global temperatures may rise temporarily by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While the likelihood of a 2°C rise in a single year remains low, the risk of temperature increases is growing.
The monsoon season in South Asia, expected to exceed normal levels between May and September, is contributing to volatile weather patterns, with wet summers followed by droughts. Glacier melting, especially in the Pamirs, threatens the water supply of major rivers, increasing the risk of water shortages.
According to the WMO’s State of the Climate in the Southwest Pacific, 2024 report, 2024 has officially been declared the hottest year in history, with global average temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.55°C. These changes are already affecting atmospheric flows, monsoon cycles, and glacier melting worldwide, including in Central Asia.
Tajikistan, a high-altitude country, faces earlier snowmelt and reduced spring runoff, which could result in droughts and floods. The shrinking of glaciers, crucial for hydropower, is also a major concern, with the WMO warning that Central Asia's glaciers could disappear in the coming years.
The frequency of climate-related disasters, such as heatwaves and mudslides, is rising, highlighting the urgent need for infrastructure modernization, improved climate monitoring, and better water resource management.
The WMO emphasizes the importance of regional cooperation to manage droughts, especially in shared river basins like the Amu Darya and Syr Darya.
The WMO’s Drought Impact Monitoring Baseline Assessment identifies Central Asia as a region at high risk for droughts.
Without a unified approach, droughts could worsen socio-economic issues and water conflicts. Tajikistan and its neighbors must work together to adapt to these changing climate challenges.
Together, these reports from the WMO deliver a unified and alarming message: Tajikistan and its neighbors must adapt to a rapidly changing climate landscape.
