Tajikistan, previously known for its cheap labor and high unemployment rates, faced serious challenges in the agricultural sector in 2025. East Fruit says the sharp increase in costs for attracting seasonal workers, strengthening of the national currency, and rising electricity prices threaten fruit and vegetable exports as well as dried fruit production.
Labor shortage: harvest remains on trees
Farmers in the Sughd province report a shortage of labor for harvesting. “I’m really facing the fact that much of the harvest will remain uncollected, as it has become unprofitable to harvest due to high labor costs. So far this affects early cherries and apricots, and early onions,” says one market participant. Migration of the working-age population to Russia exacerbates the situation.
“High earnings in Russia, where there is a huge labor shortage against the backdrop of incredible losses in the war against Ukraine and the departure of hundreds of thousands of citizens who disagree with the country’s aggression, have made incomes in Tajikistan unattractive for local residents,” notes another market participant.
Global apricot shortage: missed opportunity
In April 2025, Turkiye, the world’s largest producer of apricots and dried apricots, faced devastating frosts that destroyed up to 80% of the grape harvest and 50% of the apricot, apple, and sweet cherry harvests. This led to reduced exports from Turkey and inability to fulfill contracts for dried fruit deliveries, primarily dried apricots.
In this situation, Tajikistan could have seized the opportunity to capture part of the freed niche in the global dried fruit market. However, current internal problems may prevent the country from realizing this potential.
Need for modernization and investment
Experts note that to maintain competitiveness, Tajik exporters need to invest in improving production efficiency, increasing yields and fruit quality, implementing energy-saving technologies, and automating production processes to reduce labor costs.
“Low productivity and lack of people — everything will lead to investment in mechanization,” predicts one market participant.
This is already a completely different story and entirely different approaches to agriculture.
Thus, Tajikistan faces a choice: either adapt to new economic realities through modernization of the agricultural sector, or face further decline in export potential and deterioration of the country’s economic situation.
