The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is trimming its growth outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points for this year and next, respectively, amid the emergence of a new global trade environment, shaped by tariffs and updated trade agreements.
Economies in the region are projected to grow by 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025, released on September 30. This compares with April forecasts of 4.9% and 4.7%, respectively.
Higher tariffs imposed by the United States (US) and elevated trade uncertainty are expected to weigh on the region’s growth. Inflation will continue to ease to 1.7% this year amid lower prices for food and energy, before increasing modestly to 2.1% next year as food prices normalize.
The growth forecast for Caucasus and Central Asia is slightly upgraded for this year to 5.5%, while the projection for next year is trimmed by 0.1 percentage points to 4.9%, primarily due to lower oil and gas production in some countries in the subregion.
ADB is forecasting Tajikistan’s economy to grow by 7.4% this year and 6.8% next year, maintaining its projections made in April. Inflation is now projected at 4.5% this year and 5.2% next year, downward revisions compared with April’s forecasts of 5.0% this year and 5.8% next year.
The main risks to developing Asia and the Pacific’s outlook include continuing uncertainty around US trade policy, particularly regarding possible sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, as well as unresolved US–China trade negotiations. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, potential further deterioration in China’s property market, and possible financial market volatility could also affect the region’s outlook.
