The volume of transit shipments through Central Asian countries has surged by 70% over the past five years, reaching nearly 35 million tons. Tajikistan’s share of this total was around 0.4 million tons — just over 1%, according to data from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
More than 80% of these transit flows pass through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, with approximately 60% transported by rail. Over 70% of all cargo volumes are moved along corridors connecting China, Russia, Turkiye, Afghanistan, and European countries.
The EDB notes this as a stable trend, underscoring Central Asia’s growing role as a strategic transport hub between East and West.
According to the EDB’s Transport Projects Observatory, over US$52 billion is set to be invested in Central Asia’s transport corridors by 2035, driving significant growth in regional logistics.
Yevgeny Vinokurov, Deputy Chairman of the EDB and its Chief Economist, said the rise in transit activity could bring transformative change:
“In the past five years, we’ve seen a twofold increase in Central Asia’s trade with China, accompanied by a 70% growth in transit flows. But this is just the beginning. Central Asia, a landlocked region, needs high-quality infrastructure. We estimate a need for nearly US$53 billion in investment by 2035, with a major share allocated to the development of the North–South corridor and the Trans-Afghan route.”
Kazakhstan leads as the region’s transit hub
Between 2020 and 2024, the volume of transit shipments in Central Asia grew from 22 to approximately 35 million tons, highlighting the region’s rising role in global trade routes.
Of this, Kazakhstan handled about 17 million tons, accounting for nearly 50% of all transit. Uzbekistan followed with 11 million tons (31–32%), Turkmenistan with 4.5 million tons (13%), Kyrgyzstan with 1.8 million tons (5%), and Tajikistan with 0.4 million tons (1.5%).
Kazakhstan remains the primary transit hub thanks to its extensive railway network and strategic participation in major corridors such as the North–South and the Trans-Caspian routes.
Uzbekistan is strengthening its position by modernizing infrastructure and expanding routes through Afghanistan and Iran.
Turkmenistan is leveraging its Caspian Sea connections to boost ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan currently account for modest shares, but their participation is gradually growing in line with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Why Tajikistan’s transit share remains low
Despite nearly doubling its transit volumes since 2020, Tajikistan’s share in regional transit still lags behind — remaining at just 1%–1.5%. This is largely due to systemic challenges in the country’s transport infrastructure.
Up to 70% of Tajikistan’s rolling stock is outdated, and its railway network remains fragmented: the country’s three main lines are disconnected and pass through neighboring states. High tariffs and poor transport safety further complicate the situation.
The logistics sector suffers from chronic underfunding. Over 90% of domestic freight transport relies on road vehicles, yet 80% of trucks and buses are more than 10 years old. Road network density is also low — just 187 kilometers per 1,000 square kilometers, significantly below the global average.
Government plans to modernize transport sector
As part of its road transport development program, Tajikistan's government is directing funds toward building border terminals and logistics centers:
- US$1.5 million for logistics centers
- US$15 million for border terminals
- US$7 million in concessional loans to renew the vehicle fleet
In total, the program foresees US$78.6 million in investment through 2025, not including major infrastructure projects.
Investment in the railway sector is also accelerating. In the past 10 years, nearly US$5.9 billion has been allocated for railway development through 2025. Funds are being used to purchase locomotives and wagons, rebuild bridges, and improve railbeds.
Among the key projects:
- Construction of the Jaloliddin-Balkhi – Panji Poyon (Lower Panj) – Afghan border railway
- Expansion of the North–South corridor
- Development of additional strategic lines
A pivotal role ahead?
Tajikistan’s geographical location gives it the potential to become a crucial link in Eurasia’s transport network, connecting Central, South, and East Asia. The successful implementation of EDB-backed initiatives and integration into international corridors like the North–South and Trans-Afghan routes could redefine the country’s position in regional logistics. If investments in infrastructure, digitalization, and transport safety are fully realized, Tajikistan could shift from being a peripheral player in Central Asian transit to an active hub within the Eurasian transport crossroads.
