Is labor migration from Tajikistan coming to an end? We checked the EDB’s predictions

According to analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the first signs of a steady decline in labor migration from Tajikistan may appear within the next 10 years, with the complete cessation of labor exports predicted in 30 years.

How reliable are these forecasts?

In the September edition of the Macroeconomic Review, the EDB analysts suggest that the main driver behind the eventual slowdown of labor migration will be the growing convergence in wages and demographic indicators between Tajikistan and Russia.

"Tajikistan, like other labor-exporting countries in the region, is closing the wage gap with Russia. Over the past four to five years, average wages in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia have been aligning with Russia’s average wage," the report states.

While wages in Tajikistan remain the lowest in the region, the gap with Russia is gradually shrinking, which could lead to a slowdown in labor migration in the coming decades.

"Over time, this process will reduce the wage gap in the region, though it may never fully disappear. As the wage difference decreases, labor migration between the EDB member states will naturally decrease," the report predicts.

The report also highlights the role of demographic factors in shaping migration patterns. Countries with high birth rates, such as Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, have traditionally had large, young populations seeking work abroad. However, the situation is gradually changing as Tajikistan's demographic indicators align more closely with those of the more developed economies in the region.

"The number of births per 1,000 people in Tajikistan has been steadily decreasing by 1-2 persons per year, indicating a shift in demographic trends," the report states.

Despite these long-term changes, remittances from migrant workers remain a key driver of Tajikistan’s economy. In 2024, remittances, listed under "worker's wages" and "personal transfers," accounted for nearly half (47.6%) of the country’s GDP.

Can we trust the EDB's forecasts?

The primary drivers of labor migration from Tajikistan remain low wages and high birth rates. Tajikistan’s average wage is lower than that of all other post-Soviet countries, including in Central Asia:  Tajikistan — $314; Kyrgyzstan — $481; Uzbekistan — $484; Kazakhstan — $790; Russia — $1231.

Tajikistan also leads the post-Soviet region with the highest annual population growth rate of 2.4%, compared to the world average of 1.5%.

We checked the EDB’s claim that wages and demographic indicators between Tajikistan and Russia are aligning.

Wages and inflation

Over the past five years, the average monthly nominal salary in Tajikistan increased by 70.2%, from 1,545 somonis in early 2020 to 2,629 somonis in early 2024.

In Russia, during the same period, wages grew by 71.3%, from 51,344 rubles to 87,952 rubles. While both countries experienced similar growth rates, it is essential to account for inflation and currency devaluation to determine the real wage growth.

From 2020 to 2024, Tajikistan’s average inflation rate was 6.9%, while Russia’s was 8.4%. The somoni depreciated by 12.8% against the dollar, while the ruble saw a sharp 64.2% decline.

In 2020, the average wage in Tajikistan was $159 in dollar terms, and by 2024, it had risen to $241, marking a real wage growth of around 51.5%.

In contrast, Russia's real wage growth was much lower at 4.2%, with the average wage rising from $830 in 2020 to $865 in 2025.

These findings suggest that wage convergence between Tajikistan and Russia is possible in the long term, especially if current growth rates are maintained. However, a significant wage gap remains, and it will take substantial effort to close this gap in the distant future.

Demographic trends

According to official data, Tajikistan’s population growth has started to slow down in recent years, but the country still ranks among the top in the world for population growth. Over the 2020–2024 period, the annual growth rate was 2%, which is more than twice the global average of 0.9%. Meanwhile, Russia’s population has been declining, with an average annual decrease of 2.8%.

Experts suggest that the EDB's predictions about a long-term decline in migration from Tajikistan may indeed hold true. However, even with a decrease in birth rates, Tajikistan will likely remain one of the world’s leaders in population growth for the foreseeable future. The high proportion of young people in the population will continue to be a major driver of migration to Russia and other countries.