In late October, U.S. President Donald Trump invited the leaders of Central Asian countries to attend the Central Asia–U.S. summit, which is scheduled for November 6. This invitation came shortly after high-ranking White House officials visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Tajik political analyst Muhammad Shamsuddinov notes that in September, “multi-billion-dollar deals” between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and the U.S. were widely discussed, with Trump proudly highlighting them on his social media accounts.
These developments reflect an intensifying focus on Central Asia in U.S. foreign policy. This article aims to delve into the goals Washington seeks to achieve in the region today.
On the morning of November 5, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon left Qatar’s capital, Doha, for a working visit to Washington, where he will participate in the Central Asia–U.S. summit on November 6, along with the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
U.S. Interests and Prospects for Cooperation with Central Asia
A nation's foreign policy objectives are often outlined in official documents, and the latest official U.S. policy document on Central Asia is the U.S. Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Strengthening Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity, which was released in February 2020 during Trump's first term. This strategy underscores the region's strategic significance for the U.S. as a bridge between Europe and Asia, regardless of U.S. interests in Afghanistan. The strategy defines Washington's goals in the region as:
· Supporting the independence, sovereignty, and security of Central Asian states, primarily through cooperation in counterterrorism and combating extremism;
· Promoting economic development, market mechanisms, and integration into global markets, including through alternative logistical projects and expanding the presence of American businesses;
· Strengthening democratic institutions and human rights.
According to the strategy, over 30 years of U.S. involvement in Central Asia, Washington has provided more than $9 billion in direct assistance aimed at supporting peace, security, democratic reforms, and economic growth. Additionally, institutions like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Asian Development Bank have provided over $50 billion in loans and technical assistance to support regional development. The U.S. private sector has invested more than $31 billion in commercial enterprises in the region.
Over 40,000 educational and professional exchange programs have been directly funded to build "human connections" in the region. The strategy also mentions that the U.S. has financed more than 70 projects across Central Asia aimed at preserving the region's unique cultural heritage and archaeological sites for future generations.
It is important to note that the basic interests and objectives of the U.S. in Central Asia, outlined above, have remained unchanged for over three decades. However, the strategy does not address the increasing geopolitical competition in the region, primarily involving Russia, China, and the EU.
What is the U.S. strategy in Central Asia?
To fully understand Washington's strategy, it is necessary to consider the National Security Strategy of the U.S. from Trump's first term. For the first time in over 20 years after the Cold War, the document highlights the growing influence of major American competitors — China and Russia — as primary challenges that the U.S. must counter. This policy of containment is envisioned to extend globally.
In Central Asia, the primary goal of the U.S. has shifted towards countering the influence of China and Russia. However, this does not mean Washington seeks to dominate the region or allocate immense resources to this effort. Instead, the U.S. will likely focus on selectively strengthening its position and facilitating the diversification of foreign relations for the Central Asian states.
Some experts focus on security cooperation between Washington and Central Asia, particularly in the context of Afghanistan. They argue that the U.S. interest in the region has decreased following the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. This observation is partly supported by evidence — for example, military aid to Central Asian countries sharply decreased after the withdrawal of U.S. forces in 2014, and following the complete withdrawal in 2021, it appeared Washington no longer needed a military foothold in the region.
However, the U.S. strategy for Central Asia emphasizes the region's strategic importance regardless of the situation in Afghanistan. This suggests that while U.S. security cooperation may not be as intensive as in the 2000s and early 2010s, active engagement will continue.
It is also worth noting that stability and security are of paramount importance to the Central Asian countries, which remain keen to strengthen their relations with Washington in these areas. The dominant role of Russia in regional security makes its containment a priority for the U.S., which is aligned with the interests of the Central Asian countries.
Economic cooperation: deals, resources, and strategic partnerships
Today, economic mechanisms are at the forefront of U.S. efforts to strengthen its position in Central Asia. After a September meeting with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Trump invited the region's leaders to Washington. During that meeting, Uzbekistan signed a deal to purchase $8 billion worth of aircraft from the U.S. Subsequently, Trump praised Mirziyoyev as a "man of his word" and expressed interest in continuing cooperation in other areas.
Additionally, the U.S. and Uzbekistan have outlined a potential $100 billion portfolio for future cooperation. Similarly, the U.S. signed a $4 billion contract with Kazakhstan for the supply of locomotives, which Trump congratulated Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for.
During recent visits by U.S. officials to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, discussions were held with local businesses and American companies to expand collaboration and the presence of U.S. businesses in the region.
Another key area of interest for the U.S. in Central Asia is resources, particularly critical minerals. The region holds significant shares of global reserves of manganese, chromium, lead, zinc, and titanium. The U.S. Geological Survey reports that there are 384 critical mineral deposits in Central Asia, with Kazakhstan holding 160 of these reserves, Uzbekistan – 87, Kyrgyzstan — 75, Tajikistan — 60, and Turkmenistan –2.
Given China’s dominance in the critical minerals sector, and its use of export controls to leverage its position, Central Asia has become strategically important for the U.S. China controls 60% of global production and over 85% of processing capacity for these minerals, while the U.S. imports 63% of its critical resources from China. As such, cooperation with Central Asian countries on critical minerals has been high on the agenda in talks between U.S. officials and their Uzbek and Kazakh counterparts.
Challenges to U.S.-Central Asia relations
Several factors could complicate deeper U.S.-Central Asia relations:
1. Geography: The U.S. and Central Asia are geographically distant, with limited access to global trade routes, making the region less attractive for American businesses.
2. Security Priorities: The U.S. has shifted its security focus away from Central Asia, as evidenced by the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, with a greater emphasis on Eastern Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East.
3. Competition from China and Russia: Central Asia’s proximity to China and Russia, both of which offer cheaper goods and substantial investments in infrastructure, makes U.S. competition challenging.
4. Cultural and Investment Differences: Differences in business culture and concerns about the region’s investment climate may hinder deeper economic ties.
5. Trade Barriers: The Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which restricts trade with countries with non-market economies and human rights violations, remains a potential hurdle.
6. Democracy and Human Rights – Looking at the long-term future, as mentioned earlier, the author believes that the U.S. will return to the issue of values in its foreign policy and will use pressure on issues related to democracy and human rights. In this context, values will become a trigger in Washington's relations with Central Asia.
What to expect from the upcoming summit
The Central Asia–U.S. summit is expected to be framed as a significant achievement by President Trump, who will likely praise the region for its "tremendous progress." However, the summit's practical outcomes may include discussions on lifting the Jackson-Vanik Amendment for Kazakhstan and expanding cooperation on critical minerals.
It is unlikely that the summit will lead to any major shifts in the balance of power in the region, but it could result in strategic deals or renewed commitments, as seen in September, where commercial agreements were signed with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
In summary, while this summit will not bring radical changes, it will strengthen U.S.-Central Asia relations and lay the groundwork for future cooperation.
