Tajikistan is rapidly transitioning to an urban model, with nearly 90% of the population expected to live in urbanized areas by 2050.
A new report from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, published on November 19, 2025, reveals the main trends in global urbanization in Europe and Central Asia. The study indicates that countries in the region are actively embracing urbanization, a process that will continue to accelerate over the next decades.
Tajikistan is among the fastest urbanizing countries in Central Asia. By 2025, more than 51% of the population will live in small towns and urban-type settlements, while 33.3% will reside in large cities.
Only 15.5% of the population will remain in rural areas, marking a continued reduction in the rural share.
Projections for 2050 suggest major shifts in the country’s population distribution. The proportion of the population living in large cities is expected to increase to 46.8%, while the rural population will drop to 10.3%. Small towns and settlements will maintain their presence, but their share will shrink to 42.9%.
In total, this means that nearly 90% of Tajikistan’s population will be urbanized by 2050.
In comparison, by 2050, the share of the population in large cities will be 51% in Kazakhstan, 54.6% in Uzbekistan, 43.4% in Kyrgyzstan, and 37.8% in Turkmenistan. Overall, the Central Asian region’s share of the population in large cities will increase to 50.3%.
Urban area expansion
The UN report also highlights significant growth in built-up areas in Tajikistan, similar to other Central Asian countries. However, compared to neighboring countries, Tajikistan’s per capita built-up area remains lower.
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