After several days of unusually warm, almost spring-like weather, Tajikistan is set to experience a sharp deterioration in weather conditions. Heavy precipitation is expected in the second half of February 5 and on February 6 in districts subordinate to the center, as well as in some foothill areas of Khatlon province, according to the country’s Hydrometeorology Agency (Hydromet).
In lowland areas, precipitation will fall as a mix of rain and snow, while foothill and mountainous regions are expected to receive mostly snowfall. Colder winter conditions are set to return across the country.
Meteorologists warn of heavy snowfall on mountain passes, which is likely to complicate traffic conditions. Snowdrifts, fog, reduced visibility, and a high risk of avalanches are forecast.
The risk of snow avalanches will remain particularly high on February 5 along the 48–74 kilometer section of the Dushanbe–Chanak highway, especially on the Maikhoura–Zideh stretch in Varzob district, as well as in mountainous arears subordinate to the center.
Air temperatures in lowland, foothill, and mountainous areas are expected to drop to –10°C …–12°C.
Authorities urge residents, especially drivers, to avoid traveling to mountainous and avalanche-prone areas unless absolutely necessary.
Earlier forecasts indicated that February 2026 in Tajikistan is expected to be warmer than average overall. In most regions, average monthly temperatures are projected to exceed the climatic norm by 1°C–2°C, while precipitation levels are expected to be normal or above normal. Strong winds and fog are also possible in some areas.
In Khatlon province and lowland districts subordinate to the center, average monthly temperatures are forecast to be above normal, ranging from +4°C …+8°C in valleys and 0°C …+3°C in foothill areas. Sharp temperature fluctuations and short-term cold spells are possible.
In Sughd province, temperatures are expected to be near normal or up to 1°C above average: +2°C …+4°C in valleys and –3°C …–5°C in mountainous areas, with noticeable day-to-night variations.
In mountainous districts subordinate to the center and in the western part of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO), average monthly temperatures will be close to normal, locally up to 1°C higher, with occasional nighttime drops to –10°C …–15°C.
Precipitation is forecast to be at or above normal levels, ranging from 37–130 mm in mountainous areas, up to 141 mm on the southern slopes of the Hisor Range, and 8–59 mm in the western part of GBAO. Strengthening westerly winds of up to 17–22 m/s and fog are also expected.
