Tajik political scientist Muhammad Shamsuddinov has shared his reflections on the TRIPP project and its prospects for the Central Asian region. According to him, the growing momentum behind the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) project and the broader development of the Trans-Caspian transport corridor reflect a shifting balance of power in Central Eurasia. Against the backdrop of U.S.–China rivalry, sanctions pressure on Russia, and increasing rapprochement between Central Asian and South Caucasus states, new regional logistics architecture is taking shape. For Tajikistan, this transformation presents both opportunities and significant risks — including the danger of being sidelined from major transit routes.
Geopolitical shifts and a new Eurasian logistics landscape
Over the past three to five years, Eurasia has undergone substantial geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts that have accelerated the search for alternative transport corridors, including the Trans-Caspian route.
Intensifying competition between the United States and China has prompted both sides to diversify supply chains. Rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region have encouraged Beijing to seek alternative overland routes across Eurasia, where Central Asia and the South Caucasus are gaining strategic importance. Meanwhile, China’s dominance in critical minerals has pushed Washington to look for alternative sources and supply chains.
Central Asia has thus become increasingly significant in U.S. strategic calculations, including efforts to contain China’s influence. Russia’s war in Ukraine — through whose territory a substantial share of Eurasian cargo traditionally flows — has further heightened interest in alternative routes that bypass Russian infrastructure.
Central Asian states are also striving to strengthen their international agency, intensifying engagement with Western partners. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in particular, have stepped up diplomatic outreach to Washington. Western countries, for their part, have shown growing willingness to expand cooperation.
The South Caucasus: a window of opportunity
Important changes are also unfolding in the South Caucasus. The nearly three-decade-long Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict has moved toward resolution. On August 8, 2025, a peace declaration was signed in Washington with U.S. mediation.
One of the key contentious issues — the status of Armenia’s Syunik region (the so-called Zangezur corridor) — was addressed through the TRIPP project, which envisions a transport link connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan via Armenian territory.
Under the agreement, the United States obtained exclusive development rights for a 43-kilometer section along Armenia’s southern border for 99 years, with subsequent subleasing to an international consortium. TRIPP includes the construction of railways, highways, oil and gas pipelines, and digital infrastructure. The project is expected to become fully operational by 2030.
In the long term, TRIPP is intended to form part of the broader Middle Corridor linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Europe.
Potential regional impact
If implemented, the Trans-Caspian route could significantly reshape Eurasian trade patterns. It would offer an alternative to the Northern Corridor and the Trans-Siberian Railway, reducing reliance on Russian territory.
For China, the corridor could serve as a strategically important channel to Western markets. Western countries, in turn, would gain more diversified and secure access to the resources of Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
For the countries of both regions, the corridor presents opportunities to enhance economic sovereignty, diversify trade, and overcome geographic isolation.
Tajikistan: between opportunity and risk
From a logistics standpoint, Tajikistan faces structural constraints. The country is landlocked, 93% mountainous, and has limited transport infrastructure. Its economy remains heavily import-dependent, with imports accounting for roughly three-quarters of total foreign trade.
Strategic documents, including the National Development Strategy to 2030, emphasize the goal of overcoming the country’s “transport deadlock” and integrating into international transport networks. However, Tajikistan’s actual integration into major regional corridors remains limited.
Another challenge is that the Central Asian segment of the Middle Corridor currently runs primarily through Kazakhstan. While Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are seeking to connect to the project, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely outside its main routes.
Without deeper regional transport connectivity and economic integration, joining the Trans-Caspian network will be difficult. At the same time, closer integration between Central Asia and the South Caucasus could create a large, integrated market attractive to international investors.
For Tajikistan, participation in these processes aligns with long-term national interests. Achieving this, however, will require infrastructure modernization, proactive diplomacy, and coordination with neighboring states to avoid being left on the margins of Eurasia’s emerging transport architecture.
