Low interest in investment in Tajikistan: high risks and limited knowledge are key barriers

Experts explain that the low level of interest in investing in Tajikistan’s economy is primarily due to the high risks of losing investments. Economists emphasize that investments are a crucial factor in the development of both individual businesses and the economy as a whole. In Tajikistan's legislation, investments are defined as capital expenditures in both tangible and intangible assets. The most significant investments are those in fixed capital, which serve as the foundation for the growth of any economy.

Investments in fixed capital include expenditures on the construction and reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure, the development of equipment, technologies, and intellectual property. According to official data, in 2025, the total volume of investments in fixed capital amounted to more than 28.7 billion somoni (approximately $3 billion), reflecting a 23% increase compared to 2024. Despite the growth in capital investments, Tajikistan still lags behind its neighbors in this area, which demonstrates significant potential for further investment growth.

Economists underline the importance of the share of capital investments in GDP as an indicator of large-scale investment programs. In Tajikistan, this figure is 15.8%, placing the country in the middle tier among its neighbors. However, Tajikistan significantly lags behind other regional countries in terms of capital investment per capita.

Capital investments in Central Asian countries in 2025

Source: National statistical agencies of the region’s countries

Almost half of capital investments (46.2% in 2025) are financed by the state budget, highlighting the underdeveloped private sector and the insufficient role of private investments. Unfortunately, the share of public capital in investments has been growing—from 39.9% in 2023 to 43.6% in 2024. Private investments account for about 40%, and foreign investments make up only 14.3%. This is not enough for a developing economy, where attracting foreign funds is essential for accelerating growth and introducing new technologies.

ASIA-PLUS

Structure of capital investments by ownership types for January-December 2025

Capital Investments: 28,736.0 million somoni

Source: Calculated based on the total ownership types, with investment statistics from the state and foreign sources as of January-December 2025.

Thus, despite the growth in capital investments, Tajikistan's economic development requires an increase in private and foreign investments. While government investments are important, their volume and direction should be justified. In a market economy, government investments should serve to address market failures, stimulate the economy, and solve socially significant problems, rather than replace market mechanisms.

Why aren't people investing?

Meanwhile, the share of the population in Tajikistan’s capital investments remains below 5%, indicating insufficient public involvement in economic development and limiting opportunities for improving citizens' quality of life. This reduces the prospects for long-term sustainable growth.

Respondents in the Asia-Plus social media survey indicated that the main reason for low interest in investments is the "high risk of losing savings" (53%). Other factors mentioned include "financial and economic uncertainty" (17%), "lack of knowledge and experience," "low returns on investments," and "lack of funds" (9-10% of respondents).

Survey results show that increasing investment interest in Tajikistan requires solving several key issues, including improving financial literacy, developing the capital and securities markets, and creating a more stable and transparent economic environment.

Equally important is the creation of a stable and predictable business environment and reducing the informal economy's share, which, according to international financial institutions, accounts for about 40% of the total economy. As a result, a significant volume of financial flows, including investments, occurs in the informal sector, hindering economic development and the strengthening of the budget.

Foreign investors face multiple challenges

Foreign investors operating in Tajikistan face several challenges:

·         Legislative instability: Frequent changes in tax and investment laws create uncertainty and increase risks.

·         Weak infrastructure: Underdeveloped transport and energy networks complicate logistics and raise operating costs.

·         Market opacity: Lack of sufficient information about companies and markets makes it difficult to conduct due diligence and assess risks.

·         Bureaucracy: Complex and lengthy administrative procedures hinder obtaining necessary permits and licenses.

·         Legal risks: Insufficient protection of property rights and complex dispute resolution processes increase risks.

Socio-economic instability: Potential political and social risks, including labor disputes and economic crises, may negatively affect business.

"There is Money, but no trust, knowledge, or experience"

Financial analyst Abbos Nazaraliyev explains that Tajikistan's investment market has unique characteristics. The main investors are the state and local institutional investors (banks, large corporations, funds, insurance companies, etc.).

"We have three main categories of investors: the state, foreign investors, and local institutional/individual investors (including corporations). Investment targets in the country are predominantly focused on construction and, to a lesser extent, industry and mining," he said.

He noted that private companies in Tajikistan, aside from residential and commercial construction, do not participate in large infrastructure projects. The state, in collaboration with international financial development institutions, must handle these projects.

"There may be many reasons for this, from high investment risks in sectors other than residential construction to the lack of developed financial instruments in the securities market, such as ‘blue-chip’ assets in the national economy. In other countries, private companies typically build and manage large industrial and infrastructure projects through public-private partnerships (PPP), earning income from established tariffs," Nazaraliev added.

The analyst disagrees with the notion that the local population does not have sufficient income to invest. He pointed out that potential investments are often held in banks in savings accounts and term deposits.

According to the National Bank of Tajikistan, the total balance of deposits as of January 1, 2026, amounted to 33.9 billion somoni (about $3.6 billion), an increase of 32.8% compared to the same period in 2025. The average interest rate on term deposits in national currency was 12.05% annually. Banks primarily use these funds for business lending. The average interest rate on loans in national currency in 2025 was 22.6%.

The expert believes that these funds could partially be directed to finance small and medium-sized businesses directly, without the need for bank intermediation. Thus, the population could receive the margin (the difference between deposit and loan rates) that banks currently benefit from. Unfortunately, the local investment market is very limited.

"In general, the investment market in Tajikistan, even without considering large companies and international transactions, is significant. However, local companies may lack sufficient information and understanding of local capital market opportunities," the analyst concluded.

Expert recommendations to stimulate investment

To address the existing barriers and increase public participation in investment activities, Asia-Plus has compiled a set of recommendations based on expert proposals:

·         Reducing investment risks

o    Creating insurance mechanisms: The government or financial institutions could introduce deposit and investment insurance programs to alleviate concerns about losing savings.

o    Transparency and investor protection: Increasing transparency in financial operations and establishing strong regulatory mechanisms can boost confidence in investment instruments.

o    Political and risk protection mechanisms: Strengthening investment protection from political and other risks.

·         Educational programs

o    Organizing courses, seminars, and training for the public on basic financial literacy, investing, and risk management can help individuals better understand how investments work and how to minimize risks.

o    Developing and distributing educational materials: Creating accessible materials, such as video tutorials and infographics, on the benefits and risks of different types of investments.

·         Stabilizing the Economic Environment:

o    Developing sustainable economic policies: The government must aim to create a stable macroeconomic environment to help citizens feel more confident about the future and reduce fears of economic uncertainty.

o    Encouraging long-term investments: Creating conditions for more stable and attractive long-term investments, such as those in infrastructure or government bonds.

o    Improving Trust in Financial Institutions:

o    Developing an ombudsman institution: Establishing an independent institution to resolve disputes between investors and financial institutions.

o    Regular audits and report publications: Ensuring regular oversight and transparency in the operations of financial organizations can strengthen public trust.

·         Increasing investment returns

o    Subsidies and tax incentives for investors: Offering tax incentives or subsidies could make investments more attractive and compensate for low returns.

o    Developing new investment products: The government and private companies could offer new, more profitable, and secure investment products.

·         Expanding capital accessibility

o    Developing microfinance and crowdfunding: Supporting and developing microfinance institutions and crowdfunding platforms can give individuals access to capital for investment.

o    Creating special investment funds: The government could create funds that co-finance citizens' investment projects, reducing their financial burden and risk.

·         Developing the securities market

o    Allowing institutional investors to increase investment size: Institutional investors should be able to increase their investments in the capital structure of local issuers listed on the Central Asian Stock Exchange (CASE).

o    Introducing venture investments and private equity funds: Legislation should include concepts like venture capital, venture investors, and derivatives (options, forwards, futures, etc.).

·         Communication and information support

o    Public campaigns to promote investment: Mass media campaigns to raise awareness of investment opportunities and their benefits.

o    Consultation services: Setting up free advisory centers where citizens can receive guidance on selecting investment products and understanding associated risks.

Conclusion

In order to make investments more accessible and secure, conditions need to be created for their protection, information accessibility should be improved, and financial instruments developed. This will help people invest, improve their financial position, and strengthen Tajikistan’s economy.