DUSHANBE, April 14, 2015, Asia-Plus — Based on current data, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first three months of this year stood at more than 8.3 billion somoni (equivalent to nearly 1.4 billion U.S. dollars), an increase of 5.3 percent over the same period last year in comparable prices, according to the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan.
Meanwhile, the real GDP growth rate fell 1.7 percent over the report period compared to January-March 2014 – from 7.0 to 5.3 percent.
The Government of Tajikistan expects the year-end GDP to stand at 47 billion somoni this year, an increase of 7.6 percent over the last year in comparable prices.
Tajik experts attribute the fall in the real GDP growth rate to, first of all, global economic slowdown and deceleration of economic growth in the second half-year of 2014 in the countries, which are the major trading partners of Tajikistan.
We will recall that Tajikistan’s GDP rose 6.7 percent in a year to December 31, 2014, reaching 45.6 billion somoni.
The World Bank notes that a deep recession in Russia will significantly undermine growth and poverty-reduction prospects in Tajikistan in 2015. According to the World Bank’s
Global Economic Prospects
report (January 2015), sharp or sustained decline in commodity prices or remittance inflows from Russia—the major source of remittances to the region – represent major risks for the CIS countries, and Tajikistan is particularly vulnerable to these shocks. The World Bank projects the economic growth in Tajikistan to slow down to 4.2 percent in 2015, with significant downside risks.
