Experts say drastic national currency slide has led to sharp rise in prices in Tajikistan.
According to the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT), Tajikistan’s inflation for the frist three months of this year has stood at 3.1 percent, which was 1.0 percent higher than in the same period last year.
Last month, inflation reportedly stood at 1.5 percent, which was 1.3 percent higher compared to March 2016. In March 2016, inflation in Tajikistan stood at 0.2 percent.
In January this year, inflation stood at 0.5 percent and in February this year, inflation stood at 1.1 percent.
The annual inflation rate for the period from March 2016 to March 2017 was 7.3 percent, which was 1.7 percent higher than the annual inflation rate for the period from March 2015 to March 2016.
The government reportedly expects the year-end inflation for this year to stand at 7.0 percent.
The year-end inflation for 2016 stood at 6.1 percent, which was 0.9 percent lower than it was forecast.
Tajik central bank notes that an average monthly inflation rate last year was 0.5 percent.
In 2016, the highest inflation rate was reported in January – 1.4 percent.
The lowest inflation rate last year was reported in March, May and October – 0.2 percent.
Meanwhile, local experts attribute increasing inflation rate to the drastic currency slide.
“The national currency slide affects the wellbeing of the population,” Professor Nouriddin Qayumov told Asia-Plus in an interview.
“Practically all products have gone up in prices, because all goods, except farm produce, are being imported into the country. Even prices for some commodities being manufactured inside the country have risen,” Qayumov said.
Since the beginning of the year, the Tajik national currency, the somoni, has lost 13.8 percent of its value against the dollar and 19.3 percent of its value against the Russian ruble.
Yesterday alone, the somoni lost 2.2 percent of its value against the dollar – from 8.82 somoni per 1.00 USD on April 10 to 9.02 somoni per 1.00 USD on April 11.
Recall, the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) accuses currency dealers in devaluation. They reportedly purchase the dollars in large amount from banks and sell them at the overpriced exchange rate.
Tajik central bank has ordered commercial banks to organize sale of the dollar owing to their own reserves and the currency purchased from the population.
At the same time, the NBT has ordered banks to reveal and register persons who regularly purchase currency for the purpose of realizing a speculative profit.
Tajikistan has mainly resorted to “administrative resources” to keep the currency on an even keel.
In December 2015, the National Bank ordered the closure of all unauthorized currency exchange points in the city. After that, only banks were able to perform foreign exchange operations. Anybody found violating this new arrangement could face jail terms of up to nine years. Also, banks are forbidden by law from selling somoni at more than 1.5 percent the rate established by the National Bank.
According to the Finance Ministry’s forecasts, the somoni is projected to slide to 9.6 somoni to the dollar this year, to 10.4 somoni in 2018 and to 11.2 somoni in 2019.
