DUSHANBE, February 3, 2016, Asia-Plus – EurasiaNet.org reports that prices for basic goods are creeping up in Tajikistan, and Russia’s economic woes are forcing Tajik labor migrants to return home. That spells trouble for hundreds of thousands of Tajiks who are struggling to stay above the poverty line.
Official figures show that the average monthly salary is currently hovering around 920 somoni, which is the equivalent of around $100 at the current black-market exchange rate.
Markets in the capital, Dushanbe, are visibly less crowded these days. Everybody grumbles at how much, and how fast, things are becoming more expensive. If a month ago, a liter of sunflower oil cost 10 somoni, the same now costs 15 somoni. A kilo of sugar was five somoni, now it is eight somoni. Chocolate sweets used to cost 50 somoni per kilogram — but the price is now 65 somoni. The trend is the same for other common staples, such as potatoes and onions.
There has been particular alarm about the rise in the price for flour, which went up over 20 percent within a 10-day span in January. At the same time, prices for some locally sourced goods have remained either stable or gone down. Beef cost 35-38 somoni a kilo in the summer, but that has gone down to 30 somoni. That is slim consolation though — the price at the year’s end was under 30 somoni.
About 333,000 Tajiks are currently banned from going to Russia because of various legal issues.
President Emomali Rahmon has stated that the poverty rate in Tajikistan has fallen to 31 percent of the population at the end of 2015. Inflationary pressure could push the rate back up this year.
Traders link the spike in prices to the dismal performance of the national currency. The official exchange rate on February was 7.84 somoni to the dollar, which represents roughly a 12 percent drop from the start of the year.
But it is impossible to buy dollars from banks anymore, so people turn to the black market. Moneychangers there want 900 somoni for a hundred dollar bill, which is about 15 percent more than they were asking at the start of the year.
Purchasing power is falling inexorably. Most people have long given up on buying the odd luxury item.
Remittances for the January-September period in 2015 dropped about 65 percent to $1.054 billion, compared to $3.016 billion over the same period the previous year.
Economists are warning that conditions could worsen in 2016.
