Since the beginning of the year, an official exchange rate of the somoni (TJS) against the U.S. dollar (USD) has fallen by 6.5 percent.
An official TJS/USD rate set by the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) has fallen by 3.8 percent over the first six months of this year. The TJS/USD exchange rate reportedly fell by 0.9 percent in April, 1.3 percent in May, and 1.6 percent in June.
Besides, the somoni fell by 2.7 percent against the U.S dollar in the second half of July, Thus, the Somoni-to-Dollar rate has fallen 6.5 percent since the beginning of the year.
Tajik central bank analysts attribute the devaluation of the somoni to the devaluation of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar, negative balance of the country’s external trade turnover (more than 1 billion USD), increase in production and commercial activities, increase in currency expenditures of the budget for construction of strategic facilities, and influence of seasonal factors.
The National Bank now reportedly adheres to the forex policy based on “the floating regulated exchange rate without determination of limits of change in exchange rate.”
Representatives of Tajik central bank say that the current situation in the country’s forex market is more stable compared to the previous years.
Tajikistan has mainly resorted to “administrative resources” to keep the currency on an even keel.
In December 2015, the National Bank ordered the closure of all unauthorized currency exchange points in the city. After that, only banks were able to perform foreign exchange operations. Anybody found violating this new arrangement could face jail terms of up to nine years. Also, banks are forbidden by law from selling somoni at more than 1.5 percent the rate established by the National Bank.
Even the Finance Ministry has long freely admitted the somoni is set for gradual devaluation, which explains why people are so eager to get rid of their stocks. According to the ministry’s forecasts, the somoni is projected to slide to 10.4 somoni in 2018 and to 11.2 somoni in 2019.
