Over the first six months of this year, Tajikistan’s external debt has increased by 14 million U.S. dollars decreased by nearly 20 million U.S. dollars and as of uly 1, 2018, it amounts to 2.893 billion U.S. dollars, according to the Ministry of Finance (MoF).
An official source at a MoF says the debt owed by the government amounts to some 2.743 billion U.S. dollars, which is nearly 95 percent total external debt.
The government guaranteed debts reportedly amount to 36.6 million dollars and debts of state-run enterprises not secured through government guarantees amount to 31.5 million U.S. dollars.
The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) now reportedly accounts for some 82.2 million U.S. dollars in the structure of the country’s external debt. Tajik central bank now owes 71.6 million U.S. dollars to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 7 million U.S. dollars to China and 3.6 million U.S. dollars to the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB).
China remains Tajikistan’s largest creditor. Tajikistan now reportedly owes more than 1.2 billion to the export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank).
Besides, Tajikistan now owes 318 million U.S. dollars to the World Bank, 278 million U.S. dollars to the Asian Development Bank and 112 million U.S. dollars to the Islamic Development Bank.
Over the same six-month period, Tajikistan's national budget has allocated 90.6 million U.S. dollars for payment of principal debt and debt interest, the source added.
At the beginning of this year, the country’s external debt-to-GDP ratio reached 40.3 percent, exceeding the debt ceiling. But Tajik authorities revised the medium-term debt strategy (MTDS) and relaxed the domestic fiscal rule on the debt ceiling by increasing it from the current 40 percent of GDP to 60 percent of GDP.
Despite unsettled debts, Tajikistan is going to borrow another nearly 850 million U.S. dollars within the coming three years under the national foreign-borrowing program projected for 2018-2020: 196.5 million U.S. dollars (USD) in 2018; 295.9 million USD in 2019; and 354.7 million USD in 2020.
The World Bank analysts note that the loans for public investment projects (particularly from China), the issuance of domestic debt to support the energy sector (TJS 530 million), and the issuance of a US$500 million Eurobond in September last year are the primary drivers of the rise in Tajikistan’s external debt.
