Asian Development Bank worsens economic growth forecasts in all countries of Central Asia, except Tajikistan and Kazakhstan.
The expected growth of the economy of Tajikistan remains unchanged – 6% this year and 6.5% next year.
The relatively high growth of Tajikistan’s GDP (compared to other Central Asian countries) is explained by ADB specialists in the updated Asian Development Outlook with a reviving Russian economy, which contributes to an increase in remittances. This, consequently, will lead to an increase in retail trade and services in Tajikistan.
Inflation in the country is projected at 6.5% in 2018 and 7% in 2019.
The forecasts of economic growth in Kazakhstan, taking into account the increase in the cost of oil and gas in the world market, are even slightly improved: this year's GDP growth is expected to increase from 3.2% to 3.7%, and next from 3.5% to 3.9%.
Forecasts for GDP growth in Uzbekistan were lowered in 2018 from 5.5% to 4.9%, and in 2019 from 5.6% to 5%. The main reason for the change in expectations is the devaluation of the national currency – sum.
Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth in 2018 was forecast at 3.5%, and ADB analysts changed their expectations to 2.5%. However, relative to the next year, this figure remained the same – 4%.
The forecasts of economic growth in Turkmenistan were also reduced: from 6.5% to 6.2% in 2018, from 6.7% to 6% in 2019.
ADB is not alone in its predictions
Earlier, at the beginning of this month, the Eurasian Development Bank predicted Tajikistan to maintain a high level of economic activity until the end of the year.
EDB analysts believe that investment remains the main key driver of economic growth in Tajikistan.
«The implementation of infrastructure projects sets the investment momentum for the economy, thereby maintaining a consistently high GDP growth rate, "- said in the quarterly macroeconomic review" EDB countries: the course for sustainable development».
Also, according to economists of the bank, Tajik economy through foreign trade and remittances will be supported by "maintaining growth in the countries – trading partners" and "improving the price situation on the global cotton and aluminum markets".
According to the results of this year, the Republic predicted an economic growth of 7.1%. This is 0.1% higher than the hopes of the country's authorities: the government expects real GDP growth at the end of this year at 7%.
In the vanguard
The growth of the economy of Tajikistan last year was 7.1%, which was one of the highest rates on a global scale..
According to the World Bank, Tajikistan is among the nine countries in the world that reached the highest level of economic growth last year..
The highest GDP growth last year was recorded in two African countries: Ethiopia – 10.3% and Guinea – 8.2%.
The top ten countries with the most notable economic growth also included Nepal (7.9%), Ghana (7.8%), Armenia (7.5%), Turkey and Bhutan (7.4% each), Bangladesh (7, 3%), Tajikistan (7.1) and Djibouti (7.0%).
GDP growth in Turkmenistan in 2017 amounted to 6.5%, Uzbekistan – 5.3%, Kyrgyzstan – 4.4%, Kazakhstan – 4.0%, and Russia – 1.5%.
