Analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) have identified key external risks for Tajikistan's economy for 2025–2027.
Key risks
If the slow growth of advanced economies and the long-term GDP slowdown in China lead to a more significant drop in commodity prices than expected, Tajikistan may face reduced export revenues.
The EDB’s report, Macroeconomic Forecast 2025–2027, warns that reduced economic activity and weaker national currencies in key economic partner countries could decrease remittances. This would slow household consumption and overall economic activity.
A potential decline in gold prices is another significant external risk. Gold prices surged in 2024, with average monthly growth reaching 41% year-on-year by October 2024—a 13-year high. However, price reductions could result from factors such as halted interest rate cuts by major central banks or reduced geopolitical tensions.
Since gold accounts for nearly half of Tajikistan’s exports, a price drop could significantly reduce export revenues and negatively impact the country's economic growth.
Economic growth projections
• 2025: 8.4%
• 2026: 8.0%
• 2027: 7.4%
Tajikistan’s economy has shown robust growth in recent years, recovering from the 2020 pandemic slowdown (4.5%) to achieve growth rates of 9.2% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022, and 8.3% in 2023. Growth for 2024 is expected to be at least 8.0%.
The Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial institution investing in Eurasia. For more than eighteen years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The EDB's charter capital totals US$7 billion. Its portfolio mainly consists of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and mechanical engineering. The Bank’s operations are guided by the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles. The Eurasian Development Bank has observer status in the UN General Assembly.
