Prices for gold bars produced by the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) are continuing to rise.
The price of measured gold bars from the NBT reportedly rose 25.8% in 2024. An official source within Tajikistan’s financial regulator says the price hike has resulted from increasing international gold prices.
According to NBT, the price of a 5-gram gold bar increased by 966.5 somonis over the past year, reaching 4,800 somonis as of January 1, 2025. Meanwhile, the cost of a 100-gram bar rose by 19,300 somonis, amounting to 93,100 somonis on the same date.
Tajikistan’s central bank also offers measured gold bars weighing 10, 20, and 50 grams. The larger the bar, the lower the cost per gram of gold, and vice versa. For example, a gram from a 5-gram bar costs 956 somonis, while from a 100-gram bar, it costs 931 somonis.
The 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100 gram gold bars produced by the National Bank of Tajikistan were released into free circulation in June 2017. The gold bars are sold by the NBT Department of Monetary Circulation and Cash Operations.
The then-head of the NBT Jamshed Nourmahmadzoda told reporters in Dushanbe on February 5, 2020 that gold bars with a total weight of 100 kilograms are waiting for their customers in storage of Tajik central bank.
“By president’s order we have produced gold bars with a total weight of 100 kilograms and we are gradually selling them,” Nourmahmadzoda noted.
According to him, citizens of the country can buy the NBT-produced bars using their passports. “No other documents are required,” Nourmahmadzoda said.
Each citizen of Tajikistan can buy gold bars totally weighing one kilogram per year.
Price trends in recent years
After a record price hike of 43% in the pandemic year of 2020, NBT gold bars saw slight price declines in 2021 (4.1%) and 2022 (9.0%). However, prices rebounded in 2023, rising 21.5%.
NBT specialists determine daily gold bar prices based on the price per troy ounce (31.1034768 grams) set during the morning interbank fixing in London. They also factor in production costs, transportation and insurance expenses, and customs duties. The bars are made using locally mined gold.
Global gold prices in 2024
Gold prices surged by 26% in 2024, reaching a historic high of over US$2,800 per troy ounce for the first time, according to financial portal Prime. On October 30, 2024, gold exceeded the psychological threshold of US$2,800 per ounce.
Analysts attributed this rise to the impending U.S. presidential elections at the time and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
Experts at Finam explained the significant increase as driven by the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, sustained demand for safe-haven assets, and central bank purchases.
2025 forecast
Experts from Banks.ru news agency predict that factors supporting further gold price increases will persist.
“These include geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world, strong demand from central banks (China, India, Turkiye, etc.), and expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts,” said Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at Alfa-Capital.
Boris Krasnozhenov, head of securities market analytics at Alfa-Bank, noted that in addition to geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve policy, the yuan-to-dollar exchange rate will play a key role in determining gold prices in 2025.
Senior analyst Dmitry Smolin from Sinara Investment Bank believes the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts have already been priced in. However, a strengthening U.S. dollar following Trump’s return to office could exert downward pressure on gold prices.
He added that current prices of US$2,600–US$2,700 per ounce might negatively impact jewelry industry demand and curb central bank purchases. As a result, Smolin predicts the average gold price in 2025 will be around US$2,400, similar to the 2024 average.
