The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) states in its weekly macroeconomic review that considering favorable external trade conditions for Tajikistan, particularly high gold prices, the Bank expects the country's GDP growth to reach 8.4% in 2025.
The report highlights that the GDP growth in Tajikistan for the first quarter of this year was 8.2%. EDB analysts note that growth has been recorded across most major sectors: industry increased production by 23.4%, agriculture grew by 7.2%, wholesale and retail trade rose by 10.6%, freight turnover increased by 18.7%, and passenger traffic grew by 16.6%.
"The key driver of industrial growth was the mining sector (+80% YoY in January-March), and in trade, it was the rise in wages (the average real wage in the country increased by 22% YoY)," the review states.
Earlier this year, EDB analysts forecasted that trade and investment dynamics, along with rising prices for exported gold and decreasing costs for imported energy resources, would ensure Tajikistan’s real GDP growth of 8.4% in 2025. The country's government expects the economy to grow by at least 8% this year.
According to official data, Tajikistan's real GDP growth in 2024 was 8.4%, with the GDP volume exceeding 153.4 billion somonis (over US$14 billion at the National Bank of Tajikistan's exchange rate at the beginning of 2025).
Potential risks for Tajikistan’s economy
At the end of last year, EDB specialists identified key risks for Tajikistan’s economy during the 2025-2027. They warned that if weak growth in developed economies and a slowdown in China's long-term GDP growth lead to a more significant decline in commodity prices than anticipated, Tajikistan could face a drop in export revenues.
At the end of last year EDB experts also saw growth declining for Tajikistan to 8.0 percent in 2025 and 7.4 percent in 2027.
Tajikistan’s economy has shown robust growth in recent years, recovering from the 2020 pandemic slowdown (4.5%) to achieve growth rates of 9.2% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022, and 8.3% in 2023. In 2024, the country’s economic growth rate stood at 8.0 percent, according to the EDB.
The report also notes that a possible reduction in remittances due to lower economic activity and weakened national currencies in key partner countries could further strain Tajikistan's economy.
"Consequently, household consumption and overall economic activity in the country may slow down," the EDB report emphasizes.
Another potential external risk identified by EDB experts is the possible decline in gold prices, which could negatively impact Tajikistan’s economy.
The Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial institution investing in Eurasia. For more than eighteen years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The EDB's charter capital totals USUS$7 billion. Its portfolio mainly consists of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and mechanical engineering. The Bank’s operations are guided by the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles. The Eurasian Development Bank has observer status in the UN General Assembly.
