The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) attributes the change in the exchange rate of the Tajik national currency, the somoni, against the U.S. dollar to a combination of external and internal factors.
“External factors include the volume of foreign currency inflows into the country, global geopolitical and economic developments, and adjustments in monetary policy by central banks of leading world powers,” an official source within the NBT told Asia-Plus in an interview.
According to NBT experts, a particularly significant factor is the exchange rate dynamics of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar, which are influenced by fluctuations in energy prices, trade tensions, and instability in regional and global financial markets.
“Among internal factors, one should note trends in demand for foreign currency in the domestic market and the effectiveness of the banking system in meeting the foreign currency needs of legal entities and individuals,” the source emphasized.
Tajikistan’s financial regulator also noted that the impact of both external and internal factors is subject to seasonal fluctuations, which in turn affect their influence on the somoni's exchange rate during different periods.
“In the current situation, one of the key factors contributing to the strengthening of the official exchange rate of the national currency is the significant appreciation of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar. This, in turn, gradually affects the strengthening of the somoni against the dollar, due to increased accumulation of foreign currency in the domestic market as a result of rising financial inflows,” the source within the financial regulator explained.
At the same time, there has been a relative decline in demand for foreign currency from both individuals and legal entities during the same period, and the existing demand is being fully met by the banking system — a stabilizing factor for the national currency, the source added.
According to the Main Guidelines of Monetary Policy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2025 and the Medium-Term Period, the NBT’s exchange rate policy is based on a managed floating exchange rate regime, without fixed fluctuation limits.
The official exchange rate of the somoni against foreign currencies is formed based on market supply and demand in the domestic foreign exchange market.
The NBT’s interventions under this regime are exceptional and only made when objectively necessary.
It is worth noting that since mid-April of this year, the dollar has significantly declined against the somoni — by almost 4.5% (from 1:10.90 on April 14 to 1:10.41 on May 8).
The U.S. dollar has lost 4.8 percent of its value against the somoni since the beginning of the year: from 1:10.93 on January 1 to 1:41 on May 8.
