Central Asia is grappling with a growing gas shortage as the region struggles to meet its increasing energy needs. With a population growing by over a million people each year, the demand for energy, especially natural gas, continues to rise. By 2030, the region may need to import up to 25 billion cubic meters of gas annually, according to Logistan.info, an economic portal specializing in Central Asia.
The gas shortage, or “gas famine,” is driven by rapid population growth, expanding industries, and outdated infrastructure. With increasing demands for heating, cooking, transportation, and electricity, energy systems are already under pressure. Experts call for large-scale infrastructure upgrades and increased investment in gas production and storage to avoid future energy crises.
Kazakhstan: balancing growth and shortages
Despite increased gas production, which reached 59.2 billion cubic meters in 2024, Kazakhstan faces an internal deficit. Nearly half of its gas is reinjected to maintain oil production, leaving only 29 billion cubic meters available for domestic use. As a result, exports to China have decreased, with authorities prioritizing the domestic market. Kazakhstan, with the region's largest gas reserves, must balance export profits with internal energy demands.
Uzbekistan: from exporter to importer
Uzbekistan's energy sector is in decline. In 2024, its gas production fell to 44.6 billion cubic meters, a 4.5% decrease, while oil production dropped by 8.5%. Although the country plans to ensure 26.5 billion cubic meters of gas by 2025, it is already importing gas from Russia and Turkmenistan. This shift from exporter to importer highlights the country’s growing energy vulnerability.
Turkmenistan: a leader with no surplus
Turkmenistan remains a top gas producer in Central Asia, with 41.3 billion cubic meters produced in 2024. However, the vast majority of its gas is contracted for export to China, leaving little for regional markets. Despite high production, Turkmenistan cannot act as a "gas cushion" for its neighbors facing shortages.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: dependent and vulnerable
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are almost entirely dependent on energy imports, with little domestic gas or oil production. Growing populations and expanding infrastructure put further pressure on their already vulnerable energy systems. This dependence on external suppliers makes their economies sensitive to global price fluctuations and political instability.
Energy generation: big plans, little action
Although Central Asian countries have ambitious plans for new power plants, most projects remain unimplemented. Nuclear, hydro, and thermal plants in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan are still in the planning stages, hindered by water shortages, a lack of skilled labor, and heavy reliance on external funding. As a result, energy generation progress is lagging behind growing demand.
Tariff increases amid energy shortages
Faced with rising energy costs, Central Asian countries are revising their tariff policies. Gas and electricity prices are climbing, increasing the financial burden on citizens and exacerbating inflation. Governments, once reluctant to raise prices for fear of public unrest, are now forced to make unpopular decisions to address limited resources and growing demand.
The future: rising imports and hidden dependencies
By 2030, Central Asia will require up to 25 billion cubic meters of imported gas annually, nearly double current import levels. Russia is likely to remain the region's main supplier despite efforts to diversify. However, gas supply contracts remain opaque, deepening the region's dependence on external influences. As these countries balance energy needs with political sovereignty, the future remains uncertain.
