Tajikistan plans to boost its electricity exports by an average of 8.7% annually over the next three years, according to the country’s macroeconomic forecast for 2026-2028, approved by the government.
In 2026, Tajikistan’s electricity exports are expected to reach 4.53 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), an 8.5% increase compared to the previous year. In 2027, this figure is projected to rise to 4.92 billion kWh (an 8.7% increase), and in 2028, it is expected to reach 5.36 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 8.9%.
Revenue from electricity exports is forecasted to amount to US$147 million in 2026, US$164 million in 2027, and US$187 million in 2028.
In 2024, Tajikistan exported approximately 2.5 billion kWh of electricity, earning US$113 million. Most of this energy was supplied to Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, with smaller volumes reaching Kyrgyzstan.
The country’s total electricity production is also set to grow. In 2026, Tajikistan is expected to generate around 26 billion kWh of electricity, followed by nearly 28.6 billion kWh in 2027, and more than 30.7 billion kWh in 2028.
By the end of 2025, the country aims to produce approximately 24 billion kWh.
Tajikistan’s renewable energy potential
Tajikistan has vast renewable energy resources, ranking sixth globally in terms of its potential for renewable energy use, according to the country’s Investment Strategy until 2040. Around 98% of the country’s electricity is generated from renewable sources, predominantly hydropower.
The hydropower potential of Tajikistan is twice the current energy needs of Central Asia, but only 5% of this potential has been utilized. This offers significant opportunities not only for Tajikistan but also for neighboring countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan, connected through the high-voltage CASA-1000 power transmission line.
The country’s strategy also highlights untapped potential in solar and wind energy. Tajikistan enjoys 300 days of sunshine annually, with an economically viable solar energy capacity of 369,600 MW. The country also has a wind energy capacity of 4,485 MW, but this resource remains largely unused.
Currently, Tajikistan is actively developing the Roghun hydropower plant with a capacity of 3,780 MW, while the Sebzor hydropower plant (11 MW) was commissioned last month. The country is also preparing a feasibility study for the Shurob hydropower plant (800 MW) and, in partnership with Uzbekistan, is working on the construction of hydropower plants in the Zarafshon River basin, with a total capacity of 320 MW.
