Tajikistan's economic prospects face a number of downside risks related to Russia's labor migration policy, global political instability, and ongoing regional conflicts. This is stated in a new World Bank (WB) report on Tajikistan's economy.
«Tougher migration policies and restrictions on Tajik workers in Russia threaten to significantly reduce the flow of remittances, leading to lower economic growth, increased poverty, and a deterioration in fiscal and foreign trade balances», – the WB economists write.
The report's authors predict that trade could become more expensive for Tajikistan as trade protectionism intensifies due to U.S. tariffs against many of its trading partners, forcing China and other countries to respond by imposing their own tariffs. They expect that weakening commodity and oil prices will further slow growth, leading to uncertainty in Tajikistan's economic prospects.
"Tajikistan's exports of base metals, including aluminum, zinc and ores, are vulnerable to weak global demand. Nevertheless, the country's gold exports are expected to benefit from higher prices in 2025 after record levels in 2024," the report notes.
According to World Bank experts, regional armed conflicts may continue to escalate in the Eurasian region, as Russia and Ukraine have not yet agreed on an extended ceasefire, as well as in the Middle East. This is expected to lead to higher energy and logistics costs and disruption of global supply chains, resulting in increased import costs for Tajikistan.
"The prospective normalization of relations between the United States and Russia, accompanied by sanctions relief, is likely to lead to economic instability among Central Asian countries, although this is fraught with significant uncertainty, given the multifaceted nature of economic ties and the potential scale of such shifts," the report concludes.
According to World Bank forecasts, Tajikistan expects a slowdown in economic growth in the medium term, but it will remain stable. Real GDP growth will slow from 8.4% in 2024 to 7.0% in 2025, 4.9% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027.
Earlier, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) made forecasts about a decrease in the growth of Tajikistan's economy.
