Kazakhstan is set to introduce export quotas on beef until the end of 2025, raising questions about the potential impact on meat markets in neighboring Tajikistan.
According to Zakon.kz, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture has drafted a decree that would impose quantitative restrictions on beef exports to third countries and members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The export limits will remain in place until December 31, 2025.
The ministry explained that the move is intended to safeguard national food security, support the development of the livestock processing sector, and stabilize domestic meat prices.
Beef demand rising, Including in Tajikistan
Kazakhstan produced 608,800 tons of meat between January and July 2025, including 205,700 tons of beef — a 1.8% increase year-on-year. Meanwhile, export demand has surged. In the first half of 2025, Kazakhstan exported 16,100 tons of beef, more than doubling compared to the same period in 2024. Key export destinations include Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, and the UAE.
In 2024 alone, Kazakhstan exported around 490 tons of beef to Tajikistan, valued at $1.4 million. It also supplied approximately 1,300 tons of other meats worth $3.9 million.
Kazakhstan dominates Tajikistan’s meat imports
According to Tajikistan’s Customs Service, the country imported over 8,700 tons of meat and meat products in 2024, totaling nearly $30 million. The bulk of this — 7,700 tons worth $25.5 million — was poultry meat. Beef imports totaled about $3.8 million, including both chilled and frozen cuts. Kazakhstan accounted for 88% of poultry imports and around 60% of beef imports to Tajikistan, making it the country's primary meat supplier.
Domestic meat production rising in Tajikistan
Despite rising imports, Tajikistan has also increased its domestic meat production. According to the national statistics agency, over 164,000 tons of meat (live weight) were produced in the country from January to August 2025 — a 10.3% increase compared to the same period last year. Poultry meat production reached 29,000 tons, showing a modest 0.2% growth.
Potential impact
While Kazakhstan’s export restrictions are not an outright ban, they could reduce supply volumes to external markets — including Tajikistan. Given Kazakhstan’s dominant role in Tajik meat imports, any limitation in shipments could result in higher local prices or supply shortages, especially in the beef market. The full impact, however, will depend on how the quotas are allocated and whether Tajikistan is prioritized as a trade partner under the new policy.
