The long-standing conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan escalated into what can now be called an "open war" on February 27. The conflict has drawn international attention, especially given Pakistan's status as a nuclear power and the Taliban-controlled "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," one of the most archaic regimes, which is officially recognized only by Russia.
However, the recent joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has overshadowed news of the Afghanistan-Pakistan war. Yet, upon closer examination, the significance of the latter may be equally or even more crucial for global stability than efforts to dismantle the Iranian regime. This issue is analyzed by Fergana.
The midwife of terror
Today's rivalry between the two Muslim countries finds its roots in the colonial history of the region. In 1893, Afghanistan and British India, which included the territory now known as Pakistan, established a border known as the Durand Line. Named after Sir Henry Mortimer Durand, the British Foreign Minister who convinced the Afghan Emir, Abdur Rahman Khan, to accept the international boundary, this line stretched over 2,640 kilometers.
As was common in colonial times, the border failed to consider local specifics, especially the fact that Pashtun tribes had traditionally lived on both sides of it. Consequently, the Durand Line divided related communities, disrupting long-established ties and ultimately becoming a ticking time bomb.
The main issues began after 1947, when Pakistan gained independence. In July 1949, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan deteriorated to the point where several armed incidents occurred along the Durand Line. Afghanistan then declared that Kabul would not recognize the “artificial border” and that previous agreements on it were illegitimate.
The situation was further complicated by attempts to create an independent Pashtun state—Pashtunistan. In August 1949, Pashtun tribal leaders convened in Tirah, Pakistan, and proclaimed the establishment of Pashtunistan, electing a National Assembly and adopting a state flag. The Afghan government supported these efforts and declared August 31 as Pashtunistan’s National Day. However, Pakistan did not recognize the new state, and soon after, it began bombing both the territories of rebellious Pashtun tribes and Afghanistan itself.
This tension simmered for decades, with several peaks, including the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and the subsequent training of the Taliban by Pakistan’s intelligence agency, ISI.
"The midwife of the Afghan 'Taliban' was Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)… This must be remembered when the media start commenting on the renewed military actions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the same 'Taliban' is in power. It is this aspect of the political origins of the Taliban that was hinted at yesterday by Pakistan's Minister of Defense Khawaja Asif when he declared 'open war' on them, adding with significance that 'due to the proximity of the two countries, the Pakistani military knows their opponent and its weak points very well,'" writes political scientist Arkady Dubnov.
The expert then goes on to explain that during their first time in power in Afghanistan (1996-2001), the Taliban, seeking support from Islamic radicals, invited 'Al-Qaeda' into the country, which, as we now know, marked the beginning of their downfall. However, the lesson went unheeded: when they returned to power in 2021, they sheltered even more radical militants from the Pakistani 'Taliban' ('Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan', TTP), who, from Afghan territory, began fighting against the government of Pakistan—the only Islamic nuclear power.
"Operations of retribution"
Initially, relations between Pakistan and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan were relatively friendly. However, over the years, tensions increased, especially after Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid publicly denied the Islamic nature of Pakistan’s state system in 2021.
Between 2022 and 2024, relations between the countries steadily worsened, largely due to mutual criticism. In 2025, the Taliban’s growing proximity to Pakistan’s traditional enemy, India, became a significant issue, nearly bringing Pakistan and India to the brink of war in the spring. Furthermore, Pakistan accused the Taliban of sheltering TTP militants, exacerbating tensions.
In October 2025, armed clashes erupted along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Pakistan accused the Taliban of supporting the TTP, while the Taliban declared a “retaliatory operation” in response to Pakistan's strikes on Afghan territory. Qatar and Turkey facilitated a ceasefire agreement, though it lasted only briefly.
On February 6, 2026, a terrorist attack at a Shiite mosque in Islamabad killed dozens. On February 19, a bomb-laden vehicle crashed into a checkpoint in Bajaur, killing 11 soldiers and a child. The Pakistani government confirmed the attacker was Afghan. Another suicide bombing followed on February 21, targeting a military convoy in the Pakistani district of Bannu, killing two soldiers.
On February 22, the Pakistan Air Force conducted airstrikes on Afghan provinces, claiming they targeted TTP camps and hideouts. Afghan authorities, however, reported that civilian sites, including a madrasa, were hit, with several deaths among the civilian population.
On February 26, Afghan forces launched a large-scale operation along the Durand Line, claiming control of more than 15 border posts. The Afghan side emphasized that the operation was "defensive" in nature and aimed at preventing further airstrikes. Afghan artillery also shelled Pakistani positions in Chitral, Mohmand, Khyber and Kurram.
The next day, Pakistan responded with a second wave of airstrikes, hitting targets in Nangarhar, Paktia, and areas around Kabul and Kandahar. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared the beginning of an “open war” with Afghanistan. Clashes spread to six border provinces in Afghanistan, including Nangarhar, Nuristan, Kunar, Khost, Paktia, and Paktika, with firefights and artillery exchanges reported on both sides of the border.
The escalating conflict and its global impact
Despite diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia and Qatar to broker a ceasefire, the fighting continues. The conflict has drawn concern not only from regional states but also from the global community. A war between nuclear-armed Pakistan and Afghanistan would be dangerously destabilizing. Moreover, the conflict risks empowering terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and ISIS, alongside the already active TTP.
The UN had previously estimated that over 20 terrorist groups operate within Afghanistan. Now, this "hornet’s nest" of extremist groups may exploit the ongoing conflict to further their own goals.
The international response has been clear, with countries and organizations including Uzbekistan, China, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and the UN Secretary-General António Guterres calling for an immediate ceasefire.
The burning question now is how far the conflict will escalate. Unlike the 2025 India-Pakistan tensions, where nuclear war seemed imminent, experts believe the current situation, while grave, is unlikely to escalate to a nuclear conflict. Pakistan, with its conventional military superiority, has no immediate need to use nuclear weapons against Afghanistan. However, the conflict could morph into a hybrid war involving various terrorist groups operating from Afghan soil, an outcome that would deeply concern the international community.
While the situation remains fluid, it is likely that the fighting will either subside or transition into a protracted conflict with sporadic skirmishes. A total war of annihilation seems unlikely, but for both sides, the conflict provides a means to assert their political legitimacy.
As the world focuses on Iran, it is along the 2,640 kilometers of the Durand Line that the future of regional terrorism—and its potential global reach—will be decided.
